南华大学学报（自然科学版）2026，Vol.40Issue(2)：64-71,80,9.DOI:10.19431/j.cnki.1673-0062.2026.02.008
基于模糊动态贝叶斯网络的加氢站氢气泄漏动态风险评估方法
Dynamic risk assessment of hydrogen leakage in hydrogen refueling stations based on fuzzy dynamic Bayesian network
余圣锭 1雷波1
作者信息
- 1. 南华大学 资源环境与安全工程学院,湖南 衡阳 421001
- 折叠
摘要
Abstract
This paper proposes a risk assessment method for hydrogen leakage at hydrogen refueling stations based on fuzzy dynamic Bayesian networks.First,the main risk factors causing hydrogen leakage at refueling stations are analyzed,and a corresponding bowtie model is constructed.Based on this,the bow tie model is transformed into a dynamic Bayesian network structure using a mapping algorithm.To reduce bias caused by subjective judgment,this study uses a combination of 1expert scoring and fuzzy set theory to determine the prior probabilities of basic events.Simultaneously,considering the dy-namic evolution of risk factors,the concept of time slices is introduced into the model,and conditional probabilities are calculated using a leaky noisy OR gate model.Finally,an ap-plication analysis is conducted using a hydrogen refueling station in an industrial park as a case study,and the results show that the method has good practicality.Calculations based on the fuzzy dynamic Bayesian network show that the initial probability of hydrogen leakage at this refueling station is 7.896×10-3,while by the tenth month,the leakage probability has increased to 9.48×10-3.关键词
加氢站/氢气泄漏/燃爆事故/动态贝叶斯网络Key words
hydrogen refueling stations/hydrogen leakage/fire and explosion accidents/dy-namic Bayesian networks分类
资源环境引用本文复制引用
余圣锭,雷波..基于模糊动态贝叶斯网络的加氢站氢气泄漏动态风险评估方法[J].南华大学学报（自然科学版）,2026,40(2):64-71,80,9.
