西北工程技术学报2026，Vol.25Issue(2)：168-176,187,10.DOI:10.26974/j.cnki.XBGC.2026.02.009
银川市2014-2023年干旱灾害风险评估
Risk Assessment of Drought Disasters in Yinchuan City From 2014 to 2023
摘要
Abstract
To systematically assess drought disaster risk in urban areas of arid and semi-arid regions,Yinchuan City,Ningxia,was selected as the study area.A drought disaster risk assessment index system was constructed based on four dimensions:hazard risk of disaster-causing factors,vulnerability of disaster-bearing bodies,susceptibility of the disaster environment,and disaster prevention and mitigation capacity.Then,a combination weighting method and a comprehensive index method were used to quantitatively assess the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics of drought risk in Yinchuan City from 2014 to 2023.Furthermore,a coupling coordination model was introduced to explore the interactions among criterion layers.The results indicate that during the study period,the overall drought disaster risk in Yinchuan City showed a high-early,declining-late pattern with significant phase fluctuations,transitioning from high risk to medium and low risk.Spatially,the risk was higher in the north and south and lower in the central region,with Lingwu City and Helan County identified as high-risk clusters,while the main urban area exhibited relatively low risk.The vulnerability of disaster-bearing bodies and the hazard risk of disaster-causing factors were the dominant factors in risk evolution,with precipitation,crop-affected area,and Yellow River water withdrawal contributing significantly to the overall risk.The coupling degree among various criterion layers was relatively high(0.786),but the overall coordination degree was low(0.276),indicating a long-term state of imbalance and reflecting the need to enhance the systemic coordination of the regional disaster prevention and mitigation system.This study provides a scientific reference for drought disaster prevention and control,water resource allocation,and risk management in Yinchuan City.关键词
干旱灾害/风险评估/耦合协调度/时空演变/银川市Key words
drought disaster/risk assessment/coupling coordination degree/temporal and spatial evolution/Yinchuan City分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
禹心悦,简孟雨,杨美玲..银川市2014-2023年干旱灾害风险评估[J].西北工程技术学报,2026,25(2):168-176,187,10.基金项目
宁夏自然科学基金项目(2023AAC03047) （2023AAC03047）
