农业现代化研究2026，Vol.47Issue(3)：623-634,12.DOI:10.13872/j.1000-0275.2025.0244
城市群粮食保障能力时空演变与圈层识别
Spatiotemporal evolution and hierarchical delineation of grain security capacity in urban agglomerations
摘要
Abstract
Due to the non-agricultural use of land and high population concentration,ensuring grain security in urban agglomerations is of great significance for the stable socio-economic development.Based on data from 229 prefecture-level cities in 17 urban agglomerations in China from 2000 to 2022,this study calculates the grain supply-demand gap and its link to grain flow potential,and classifies urban agglomeration grain security types into four categories using kernel density analysis and standard deviation ellipse methods.The study indicates that:1)In 2022,the grain security capacity of 17 urban agglomerations ranked from strongest to weakest as follows:Harbin-Changchun,Central Plains,Hohhot-Baotou-Ordos-Yulin,Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei,Middle Yangtze,Chengdu-Chongqing,Shandong Peninsula,Guanzhong Plain,Central-Southern Liaoning,Central Yunnan,Central Shanxi,Central Guizhou,Lanzhou-Xining,Beibu Gulf,Yangtze River Delta,West Coast of the Taiwan Strait,and Pearl River Delta urban agglomerations;2)Chongqing in the Chengdu-Chongqing urban agglomeration and Harbin in the Harbin-Changchun urban agglomeration,influenced by factors such as natural resource endowment,have become the main cities supplying grain in their respective urban agglomerations;and 3)In other urban agglomerations,under the influence of population spatial concentration and industrial restructuring,the grain supply areas are shifting toward the periphery.The Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei,Guanzhong Plain,Central Yunnan,Central Guizhou,and Central Shanxi urban agglomerations exhibit a single-center concentric structure;the Middle Yangtze,Pearl River Delta,Lanzhou-Xining,and Hohhot-Baotou-Ordos-Yulin urban agglomerations display a multi-center concentric structure;while the Yangtze River Delta,Shandong Peninsula,Beibu Gulf,West Coast of the Taiwan Strait,Central-Southern Liaoning,and Central Plains urban agglomerations show a belt-like concentric structure.Accordingly,for the four types of urban agglomerations,a grain security governance system adapted to the spatial structure should be established through differentiated grain industry layouts,optimized circulation systems,and interregional collaboration mechanisms.关键词
城市群/粮食安全/圈层结构/农业现代化/粮食产业格局Key words
urban agglomeration/grain security/circle structure/modernization of agriculture/grain industry pattern分类
管理科学引用本文复制引用
何洋,王颜齐..城市群粮食保障能力时空演变与圈层识别[J].农业现代化研究,2026,47(3):623-634,12.基金项目
国家社会科学基金项目(25BJY180).Supported by the National Social Science Foundation of China(25BJY180). （25BJY180）
