山东国土资源2026，Vol.42Issue(8)：1-6,6.DOI:10.12128/j.issn.1672-6979.2026.08.001
山东省耕地需求预测研究
Study on Cropland Demand Predicating in Shandong Province
摘要
Abstract
From the aspects of population size,per capita grain consumption,urbanization rate and vegeta-ble-growing land,based on multi-source statistical data from 2014 to 2023,by using system dynamics model,ARIMA model and exponential smoothing method,total and structural demand of arable land in Shandong province by 2028 have been predicated.It is indicated that by 2028,total population in Shandong province can decrease to 10 075 ten thousand,with an urbanization rate of 68.95%.Rural per capita grain consumption will be 162 kg,while urban per capita grain consumption will be 118 kg,resulting in an esti-mated total grain demand of approximately 56.933 billion kg.In order to meet this demand,an additional 3.80 billion kg of grain production will be required,along with a vegetable-growing area of about 606.35 thousand hectares.The grain-cultivated land demand will reach 570.607×103 hm2.On the basis of self-sufficiency in grain and vegetable production in Shandong province,It can provide agricultural product sup-ply for hundreds of millions of people outside.This research will provide some references for coordinated land planning,arable land conservation and food security in Shandong province.关键词
粮食安全/耕地需求预测/系统动力学模型/ARIMA模型/山东省Key words
Food security/cultivated land demand prediction/system dynamics model/ARIMA model/Shandong province分类
管理科学引用本文复制引用
黄宝华,毕梅祯,解磊,魏宇,许晓彤,赵琪琛..山东省耕地需求预测研究[J].山东国土资源,2026,42(8):1-6,6.基金项目
2024年度全国统计科学研究项目:"生态产品价值核算方法研究"(编号:2024LY024) （编号:2024LY024）
山东泰山产业领军人才资助(tscy20231229) （tscy20231229）
