水土保持研究2026，Vol.33Issue(5)：83-94,12.DOI:10.13869/j.cnki.rswc.2026.05.023
近51年昌马河流域水沙演变特征及其驱动因素分析
Analysis of evolution characteristics and driving factors of runoff and sediment load in Changma River Basin over past 51 years
摘要
Abstract
[Objective]This study reveals the evolution patterns and coordination characteristics of runoff and sediment in the Changma River Basin,along with their primary driving factors,thereby providing a scientific basis for runoff-sediment management,water resources development and utilization,and ecological environmental protection within the river basin.[Methods]Based on monthly runoff and sediment load data from the Changmabao station from 1972 to 2022,this study employed methods including the trend-free pre-whitening Mann-Kendall(TFPW-MK)test,runoff-sediment relationship coordination analysis,and the slope change ratio of cumulative quantity(SCRCQ)method to systematically analyze the intra-annual distribution,variation trends,abrupt changes,incoordination degree,and influencing factors of runoff and sediment in the river basin.[Results]Over the past 51 years,the intra-annual distribution of runoff and sediment load gradually became more uneven.Both showed increasing trends at rates of 1.56×108 m3/10 a and 4.55×104 t/a,respectively,showing significant periodic variations,with abrupt changes both occurring in 1998.The annual sediment coefficient exceeded 0.011,indicating that the river basin was generally in a state of low runoff and high sediment.The runoff-sediment relationship was most uncoordinated from June to August,although the incoordination degree weakened over the past 51 years time.Climate change and human activities were the dominant factors of changes in runoff and sediment load,with contribution rates of 64.25%and 50.64%,respectively.[Conclusion]Runoff and sediment in the Changma River Basin show an overall increasing trend,with pronounced characteristics of uneven intra-annual distribution and seasonal runoff-sediment incoordination.Runoff variations are primarily influenced by climate change,and sediment load variations are mainly driven by human activities.The findings can provide support for optimized water resource allocation,sediment control,and ecological protection in the river basin.关键词
水沙时空变化/不协调度/TFPW-MK/昌马河流域Key words
spatiotemporal variation of runoff and sediment/incoordination degree/TFPW-MK/Changma River Basin分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
高美华,牛最荣,贾玲..近51年昌马河流域水沙演变特征及其驱动因素分析[J].水土保持研究,2026,33(5):83-94,12.基金项目
甘肃省水利科学试验研究及技术推广项目"金昌市水资源—经济发展—生态环境协调发展研究"(25GSLK087),"气候变化下出山径流的不确定性分析及缺水风险评估"(25GSLK078) （25GSLK087）
