护理研究2026，Vol.40Issue(17)：2968-2974,7.DOI:10.12102/j.issn.1009-6493.2026.17.002
中国老年人衰弱发生影响因素的滞后效应分析
Lagged effect analysis of influencing factors for frailty onset in Chinese older adults
摘要
Abstract
Objective:To explore the nonlinear exposure-lagged characteristics of various influencing factors for frailty in Chinese older adults using the distributed lag non-linear model(DLNM),and to identify the lag windows corresponding to the peak effects of each risk factor,thereby providing evidence for phased and precise frailty prevention.Methods:Data from the 2011,2013,and 2015 waves of the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study(CHARLS)were used to obtain information on frailty,cognitive function,depression,activities of daily living,and demographic characteristics.A DLNM was constructed for analysis.Results:A total of 745 older adults were included.Different factors showed marked lag heterogeneity:the effects of physical activity,impaired activities of daily living,depression,poor self-rated health,and pain peaked within relatively short lag periods.In contrast,the peak effect of hearing impairment appeared with a longer delay.Although visual impairment showed a trend toward delayed effects,the association was not statistically significant.Conclusions:The time to peak lagged effects of factors associated with frailty onset varies among Chinese older adults,indicating different pathways and temporal windows through which these factors act.Physical activity,impaired activities of daily living,depression,poor self-rated health,and pain primarily affect individual functional status through short-term effects,whereas sensory impairments such as hearing and visual dysfunction tend to exhibit delayed cumulative effects.Phased interventions should be implemented based on these distinct lag characteristics to achieve early prevention and long-term management of frailty.关键词
老年人/衰弱/运动/认知功能/日常活动能力/抑郁/视力障碍/滞后效应/影响因素Key words
older adults/frailty/exercise/cognitive function/activities of daily living/depression/visual impairment/lagged effect/influencing factors引用本文复制引用
李松益,季丽丽,朱清华,侯军营,李浚鹏,李晓妍,王欣茹,崔潇涵,刘元芬,刘聿秀..中国老年人衰弱发生影响因素的滞后效应分析[J].护理研究,2026,40(17):2968-2974,7.基金项目
教育部人文社会科学研究项目,编号:25YJC840014 （）
山东省大学生创新创业计划项目,编号:S202510438014,S202510438008 （）
山东省自然科学基金项目,编号:ZR2026QC0650 （）
山东第二医科大学研究生科研创新基金项目,编号:2025YJSCX028 （）
