中国农业资源与区划2026，Vol.47Issue(5)：24-34,11.DOI:10.7621/cjarrp.1005-9121.20260503
京津冀地区耕地"非粮化"的时空格局演变及影响因素研究
THE SPATIOTEMPORAL EVOLUTION OF"NON-GRAIN CULTIVATION"LAND IN THE BEIJING-TIANJIN-HEBEI REGION AND ITS INFLUENCING FACTORS
摘要
Abstract
To clarify the spatiotemporal pattern evolution and driving mechanism of non-grain cultivated land in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region,and provide a reference for optimizing the utilization of regional cultivated land.A spatial analysis method based on the county level was used to analyze the spatiotemporal evolution of non-grain cultivated land in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region from 2008 to 2023.At the same time,a geographic detector model was used to explore its driving mechanism from different perspectives.The results showed that:(1)The non-grain level of cultivated land in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region decreased from 0.254 in 2008 to 0.207 in 2023,with an average annual decline rate of 1.35%.Among them,the non-grain cultivation level of cultivated land in Beijing was the highest,showing a trend of first increasing and then decreasing;The overall level of non-grain cultivation conversion of cultivated land in Tianjin had shown a rapid downward trend year by year;The trend of non-grain cultivation conversion of cultivated land in Hebei province was basically consistent with the trend of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei,showing a stable and slow downward trend.(2)The level of non-grain cultivation in Beijing's counties intensified,while in Tianjin's counties,it decreased.Most counties in Hebei have increased their non-grain cultivation,while a few had decreased.Among them,the counties with increased non-grain cultivation were mainly distributed in Tangshan,Xingtai,Shijiazhuang,and Baoding,while the counties with decreased non-grain cultivation were relatively scattered,such as Kangbao county in Zhangjiakou,Haixing county,Dongguang county,and Fucheng county in Cangzhou.(3)The main type of non grain transformation of cultivated land in counties was light reduction,with 61 counties experiencing light reduction,accounting for 40.13%of the total number of counties studied,mainly distributed in the southern counties of Tianjin and Hebei provinces;Next were mild and severe exacerbations,accounting for 23.68%and 23.02%respectively,mainly distributed in the northern counties of Beijing and Hebei province;Stable counties accounted for 13.16%,scattered in the southern counties of Hebei province.(4)The spatial distribution pattern of non-grain cultivated land had a clustering effect,with clustering characteristics mainly characterized by high-high clustering and low-low clustering.The degree of clustering showed a trend of first weakening and then strengthening over time.(5)The impact of natural factors on the non-grain cultivation level of cultivated land in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region had always been in an important dominant position,while the impact of economic factors had remained relatively stable,and the impact of social factors had shown a trend of first decreasing and then increasing,among which natural factors and economic and social factors such as the number of agricultural workers,effective irrigation area,land productivity,per capita GDP,and the proportion of GDP in the secondary and tertiary industries had always been important driving factors for non-grain cultivation.Therefore,although the overall trend of non-graining of cultivated land in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region is declining,local non-graining problems are still prominent,with obvious spatial autocorrelation characteristics,showing a gradually increasing development trend from southeast to northwest.In the future,it is necessary to strengthen differentiated regional"non graining"control policies,and alleviate the"non graining"trend by improving grain output efficiency and increasing farmers'income.关键词
耕地非粮化/时空演变/地理探测器/影响机制/京津冀Key words
non-grain cultivation of cultivated land/spatiotemporal evolution/geographic detector/influencing mechanism/Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei分类
管理科学引用本文复制引用
孔江伟,高梦溪..京津冀地区耕地"非粮化"的时空格局演变及影响因素研究[J].中国农业资源与区划,2026,47(5):24-34,11.基金项目
国家社科基金项目"供给侧结构性改革粮食产区农业全要素生产率提升研究"(17bjy097) （17bjy097）
国家土地征收制度改革试点项目"和林格尔县土地征收制度改革政策与法律研究"(2252070008) （2252070008）
