中国农业资源与区划2026，Vol.47Issue(5)：49-63,15.DOI:10.7621/cjarrp.1005-9121.20260505
农业生产性服务对温室气体排放的影响机制研究
THE IMPACT OF AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION SERVICES ON GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS AND MECHANISM
摘要
Abstract
As an essential pathway for smallholder farmers to connect with modernized agriculture,agricultural production services play an important role in breaking through resource and environmental constraints and contributing to the sustainable development of agriculture.Exploring the impact of agricultural production services on greenhouse gas emissions(GHGs)and their underlying mechanisms is crucial for China to realize the"double-carbon"goal.Based on the field research data of 894 maize farmers in the Three Northeastern provinces,we used the life cycle assessment method to measure agricultural GHGs and constructed a double machine learning model framework to empirically test the impact of agricultural production services on agricultural greenhouse gases,and the model overcame many strict specific conditions of the traditional causal inference model and skillfully solved the problem of"curse of dimensionality".The results found that:(1)Agricultural production services could significantly curb agricultural GHGs,and this conclusion was still valid after various robustness tests,and the"emission reductions"were mainly achieved through indirect pathways,such as the scale effect of promoting land transfer,the technological effect of adopting conservation farming,and the substitution effect of agricultural labor;(2)In terms of geographic regions,agricultural production services had a more significant mitigation effect on the central and western regions of the Three Northeastern provinces;in terms of food crop income levels,agricultural production services had a more significant effect on GHG mitigation for farm households with higher food income levels;(3)In terms of different production services,ploughing,sowing and fertilizer application were more significant in reducing GHGs.Based on this,the important role of agricultural productive services in China's agricultural GHGs reduction actions is proposed,which can provide scientific policy insights for continuing to strengthen the construction of agricultural productive services and promoting sustainable agricultural development.关键词
农业生产性服务/温室气体排放/双重机器学习模型/生命周期评价法/绿色发展Key words
agricultural production services/greenhouse gas emissions/double machine learning modeling/life cycle assessment approach/green development分类
管理科学引用本文复制引用
王陆陆,吕杰,张俊妍..农业生产性服务对温室气体排放的影响机制研究[J].中国农业资源与区划,2026,47(5):49-63,15.基金项目
国家社科重大项目"'双碳'目标下农业绿色发展体系创新与政策研究"(22&ZD083) （22&ZD083）
国家自然科学基金项目"基于分工视角的不同生产服务主体响应行为与农业生产性服务高质量发展:作用机理、效果评估及政策优化"(72373101) （72373101）
中国博士后科学基金面上项目"基于生命周期视角的奶牛养殖业粪污资源化利用环境回弹效应的量化研究"(2022M712202) （2022M712202）
