中医杂志2026，Vol.67Issue(14)：1491-1496,6.DOI:10.13288/j.11-2166/r.2026.14.005
自然实验在中医药疗效评价中的优势、挑战及实施路径
Advantages,Challenges,and Implementation Pathways of Natural Experiments in Evaluating the Efficacy of Traditional Chinese Medicine
摘要
Abstract
A natural experiment is a causal inference study design grounded in real-world research.Its core concept is to use quasi-random variation in exposure generated by external factors to evaluate the effects of interventions or exposures on outcomes.It is particularly suitable for research settings in which randomized controlled trials(RCTs)are infeasible or ethically constrained,and it combines causal inference capacity with relatively strong external validity.This article provides an overview of the definition,key features,and current application status of natural experiments,and proposes the application scenarios for applying natural experiment strategies to the evaluation of therapeutic effects in traditional Chinese medicine(TCM),including policy implementation or policy change evaluation,assessment of variations in clinical practice within hospitals,and evaluation of differences in resource allocation across regions or in-stitutions.The design pathway includes starting from clinical or policy-related TCM questions,systematically collecting relevant data,performing statistical modeling and effect estimation,and interpreting effect estimates in the context of clinical practice.It further analyzes the advantages and challenges of using natural experiments in TCM.关键词
自然实验/中医药疗法/疗效评价/真实世界研究Key words
natural experiments/traditional Chinese medicine therapy/clinical efficacy evaluation/real-world study引用本文复制引用
刘日荷,刘庭秀,刘凯,孙源,张晓寒,刘建平,刘兆兰..自然实验在中医药疗效评价中的优势、挑战及实施路径[J].中医杂志,2026,67(14):1491-1496,6.基金项目
国家自然科学基金(82374298) （82374298）
北京中医药大学学科后备带头人支持项目(90010960920033) （90010960920033）
北京市科技新星计划交叉合作课题(20240484546) （20240484546）
国家中医药管理局高水平中医药重点学科建设项目(zyyzdxk-2023249) （zyyzdxk-2023249）
