北京大学学报（自然科学版）2026，Vol.62Issue(4)：758-768,11.DOI:10.13209/j.0479-8023.2026.056
中国东部季风区湿球温度的时空演变及人群高湿热暴露风险评价
Spatial-Temporal Evolution of Wet-Bulb Temperature and Evaluation of Population High Moist-Heat Exposure Risk in Eastern China's Monsoon Region
摘要
Abstract
Based on ERA5 reanalysis data and downscaled CMIP6 model simulation data,the authors analyze the wet-bulb temperature changes and moist-heat conditions in the eastern China's monsoon region from 1981 to 2020.It also predicts the changes under the SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 emission scenarios from 2046 to 2055 and evaluates the high moist-heat exposure risk for people.The results indicate that from 1981 to 2020,the wet-bulb temperature in the eastern China's monsoon region generally increased.During the daytime,the annual maximum wet-bulb temperature significantly rose in the western and eastern coastal region,while it decreased in some southern regions.At night,the change was mainly characterized by an increase.The annual average wet-bulb temperature increased both during the day and at night.Moist-heat weather during the daytime mainly occurred in the southern region,followed by the northern region,with the least occurrence in the central region.The spatial pattern of high moist-heat weather showed a distribution of more in the north and less in the south.At night,moist-heat weather mainly occurred in the northern and eastern parts,with high moist-heat weather being extremely rare.Under the SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios,the frequency and distribution of various types of moist-heat weather in the future will change in a complex manner.The central,eastern,southern China and the southwestern parts of the study region are projected to experience a decrease in moist-heat weather but an increase in high moist-heat weather.In other regions,both types of moist-heat weather are expected to increase.There will be an increase of 0-50 days per year in the northern region,while most of the southern regions will experience an increase of 50-100 days per year.In the future,the population exposure risk to high moist-heat conditions is expected to be relatively low in the northern region.However,the southern region will face moderate to high exposure risks,where urgent measures need to be taken to address these challenges.关键词
气候变化/湿球温度/湿热天气/暴露风险Key words
climate change/wet-bulb temperature/moist-heat weather/exposure risk引用本文复制引用
王蕊,李鹏飞,赵昕奕..中国东部季风区湿球温度的时空演变及人群高湿热暴露风险评价[J].北京大学学报（自然科学版）,2026,62(4):758-768,11.基金项目
国家自然科学基金(72474010)资助 （72474010）
