长江科学院院报2026，Vol.43Issue(8)：36-44,9.DOI:10.11988/ckyyb.20250440
基于稳健回归改进的浮球覆盖蒸发计算模型
Improved Calculation Model of Floating Ball Coverage Evaporation Based on Robust Regression
摘要
Abstract
[Objective]Traditional evaporation models are limited in floating ball coverage scenarios by complex parameterization,reliance on sensible heat flux data,and cumbersome aerodynamic calculations.This study aims to develop a highly accurate evaporation prediction formula with simplified parameters,adaptable to varying coverage ratios,to provide a reference for water resource quantification.[Method]Based on the Priestley-Taylor model,a modified model was developed by introducing correction term g(m)to address evaporation prediction under floating ball coverage.By analyzing the relationship between coverage ratio and latent heat flux,exponential(for high-tem-perature seasons)and linear(for transition seasons)correction forms were determined.Robust regression was em-ployed to minimize the impact of outliers.The optimal model was selected through model comparison and cross-vali-dation.[Result](1)The response relationship between latent heat flux and floating ball coverage ratio exhibited significant monthly variations.At high-temperatures during high-radiation season(June-August),the exponential correction yielded the best fit(R2≥0.985),whereas the linear correction performed better during the transition seasons(March-May and September-October)(R2 ≥0.986).(2)The exponential model demonstrated superior a-daptability and predictive advantages for floating ball evaporation.Over the entire experimental period,it achieved a Willmott's index of agreement(D)of 0.986,a Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency(NSE)of 0.947,a root mean square er-ror(RMSE)of 0.54 mm/d,and a mean absolute error(MAE)of 0.43 mm/d,with strong parameter stability and no systematic bias.(3)The model also showed good adaptability during external validation under high-coverage conditions(NSE=0.734,D=0.890).[Conclusion]The proposed modified model establishes a unified prediction framework based on basic meteorological parameters for varying floating ball coverage ratios.It enables precise esti-mation of evaporation processes across different coverage levels,providing an efficient and practical computational method for water resource management in arid regions.关键词
浮球覆盖/蒸发预测模型/水面蒸发/稳健回归/Priestley-Taylor模型Key words
floating ball coverage/evaporation prediction model/water surface evaporation/robust regression/Priestley-Taylor model分类
建筑与水利引用本文复制引用
严新军,赵德鑫,侍克斌,韩克武,王金涵..基于稳健回归改进的浮球覆盖蒸发计算模型[J].长江科学院院报,2026,43(8):36-44,9.基金项目
国家自然科学基金项目(52469005) （52469005）
新疆水利工程安全与水灾害防治重点实验室2023年研究项目(ZDSYS-YJS-2023-33) （ZDSYS-YJS-2023-33）
