电力系统自动化2026，Vol.50Issue(15)：134-147,14.DOI:10.7500/AEPS20250611007
基于多时间尺度融合的规模化电动汽车可行域边界区间预测
Feasible Region Boundary Interval Prediction for Large-scale Electric Vehicles Based on Multi-timescale Integration
摘要
Abstract
As a new type of flexible energy storage device,electric vehicles(EVs)can provide valuable flexible regulation capabilities for the power system by participating in the regulation of electric vehicle aggregators.With the continuous increase in the penetration rate of renewable energy,the regulation demands of the power system are becoming increasingly complex.At present,adjustable capacity prediction of EVs faces challenges in achieving higher accuracy and resilience against risks.To this end,this paper proposes a prediction method for feasible region boundary interval of large-scale EVs based on multi-timescale integration.Firstly,considering the influence of user credibility on the evaluation of the adjustable capability of EVs,access rules for participating in regulation and the feasible region correction methods are designed for different types of EVs,and then aggregated to obtain the feasible region boundary of large-scale EVs.Secondly,a trend-preserving data amplification method for time series is proposed to achieve the amplification of a single feasible region boundary dataset to multiple datasets with similar time series information but different specific values.Again,based on multiple datasets obtained through amplification,a multi-timescale integration prediction and probabilistic interval modeling method for the feasible region boundary of EVs combining Auto former and Gaussian mixture models is proposed.Finally,based on the large-scale historical charging records of Shenzhen,China,the effectiveness of the proposed method is verified.The results show that the proposed prediction method of feasible region boundary interval can provide more accurate and reliable information support for aggregators participating in the electricity market and power system regulation on the future adjustable capacity of EV resources.关键词
电动汽车/聚合商/可行域/区间预测/可调节能力/多时间尺度/概率区间建模Key words
electric vehicle/aggregator/feasible region/interval prediction/adjustable capacity/multi-timescale/probabilistic interval modeling引用本文复制引用
胡俊杰,陈泉希,潘羿,张会明,韩华春..基于多时间尺度融合的规模化电动汽车可行域边界区间预测[J].电力系统自动化,2026,50(15):134-147,14.基金项目
国家电网有限公司科技项目(5400-202455371A-3-1-KJ). This work is supported by State Grid Corporation of China(No.5400-202455371A-3-1-KJ). （5400-202455371A-3-1-KJ）
