摘要
Abstract
China has a vast number of small reservoirs,many constructed during the 1960s and 1970s.Due to sparse hydrological monitoring stations and limited data,these reservoirs exhibit insufficient self-protection capabilities,with dam failures occurring from time to time.Therefore,conducting flood forecasting research for small reservoirs is of significant importance.To address the low accuracy of flood forecasting caused by sparse data for small reservoirs in Anhui Province,this paper proposes a flood forecasting parameter transfer method based on variable fuzzy clustering.First,data on rainfall,runoff,and land surface conditions within the catchment areas of small reservoirs are collected.Then,variable fuzzy clustering is applied to classify seven reference reservoirs and 20 small reservoirs in Anhui Province into three hydrological similarity categories based on their hydrological similarity.Finally,the Xin'anjiang River integrated hydrological model is constructed to compare flood simulation accuracy before and after parameter transfer,validating the proposed method's validity.This study provides a reference for flood forecasting schemes in small reservoirs of Anhui Province and other data-scarce regions.关键词
洪水预报/小型水库/无资料地区/新安江水文模型/可变模糊聚类/参数移植Key words
flood forecasting/small reservoirs/data-scarce regions/Xin'anjiang River hydrological model/variable fuzzy clustering/parameter transfer分类
建筑与水利
