干旱区研究2026，Vol.43Issue(8)：1589-1602,14.DOI:10.13866/j.azr.2026.08.03
1961-2023年新疆区域致灾冰雹日数时空特征及趋势预估
Spatial-temporal characteristics and trends of damaging hail days in Xinjiang during 1961-2023
摘要
Abstract
Damaging hail significantly affects agricultural production in Xinjiang.Accordingly,timely diagnosis of its spatio-temporal characteristics is crucial for safeguarding grain,cotton,and specialty forest and fruit crops in the region.This study analyzed damaging hail data from 1961 to 2023,using methods such as the Mann-Kend-all(M-K)abrupt change test,ensemble empirical mode decomposition(EEMD),and the Hurst index.The aim is to investigate the spatio-temporal distribution and future trends of damaging hail days in Xinjiang.The results in-dicate that:(1)The spatial distribution of damaging hail days decreases from west to east,primarily concentrating along mountain foothills and river valleys.Seasonally,the distribution follows the order:summer>spring>au-tumn>winter.The highest center shifts southward in spring,expands northward in summer,and retracts in au-tumn.It peaks in Aksu Prefecture during spring and autumn but migrates northward to Wenquan County in sum-mer and annually.The western region exhibits a relatively greater increasing trend.(2)Over the past 63 years,Xinjiang has experienced a significant overall increase in damaging hail days,with the largest increase occurring in summer and June.The intra-annual distribution follows a unimodal pattern,peaking in early July.(3)EEMD decomposition reveals that damaging hail days,annually and in spring,summer,and autumn,primarily exhibit quasi-3-and quasi-6/7-year interannual cycles,alongside quasi-13/16/21-year interdecadal cycles.(4)Future hail prevention efforts should prioritize regions such as Bortala and Tacheng Prefectures,as these are historically high-incidence areas and show a continuous upward trend.These findings offer a scientific basis for optimizing the layout of artificial hail suppression operations,allocating hail prevention and mitigation resources,and adjust-ing agricultural planting structures in Xinjiang.关键词
致灾冰雹日数/时空分布特征/趋势预估/集合经验模态分解(EEMD)/新疆Key words
damaging hail days/temporal and spatial distribution/trend projection/ensemble empirical mode decomposition(EEMD)/Xinjiang引用本文复制引用
乌尔娜,史莲梅,蒋帅,黄荟,李圆圆,张磊..1961-2023年新疆区域致灾冰雹日数时空特征及趋势预估[J].干旱区研究,2026,43(8):1589-1602,14.基金项目
中国气象局创新发展专项(CXFZ2024J034) （CXFZ2024J034）
新疆气象局科技创新发展基金项目(QN202609) （QN202609）
新疆气象局引导性项目(YD2024020) （YD2024020）
新疆维吾尔自治区自然基金(2022D01A293) （2022D01A293）
新疆维吾尔自治区重点研发计划项目(2023B03019-2) （2023B03019-2）
