华南农业大学学报2026，Vol.47Issue(5)：790-803,14.DOI:10.7671/j.issn.1001-411X.202509004
基于MaxEnt模型的中国雷公藤气候适生区评价与时空演变预测
Prediction of climatic suitability and spatiotemporal dynamics of Tripterygium wilfordii in China based on the MaxEnt model
摘要
Abstract
[Objective]Tripterygium wilfordii Hook.f.is an important medicinal plant in China.However,its natural distribution area is facing progressive shrinkage and fragmentation under the influence of climate change and human activities.This study aims to systematically evaluate its current and future habitat suitability patterns.[Method]Based on 430 species occurrence records,spatial thinning was applied to eliminate the effects of uneven spatial sampling and generate independent occurrence records.Fifty-three environmental variables,including climatic,edaphic,and topographic factors,were selected through analyses of variable contribution rates,Jackknife tests,and multicollinearity(pearson|r|≥0.8)to identify key variables.A habitat suitability prediction model for T.wilfordii was established using MaxEnt,and the model's hyperparameters were optimized by adjusting feature classes(FC)and regularization multiplier(RM).AICc and partial receiver operating characteristic(ROC)curve were used as evaluation indicators,and the optimal parameter combination was determined as FC=LQT and RM=2.9.The model predicted the potential suitable distribution of T.wilfordii under current conditions and four future shared socioeconomic pathways(SSP126,SSP245,SSP370,SSP585)for the 2040s,2060s,2080s,and 2100s.The key environmental factors and the spatiotemporal migration of the distribution centroid were also analyzed.[Result]The current suitable habitats of T.wilfordii were mainly distributed in south-central and southwestern China,with core areas in Yunnan,Guizhou,Hunan,Jiangxi and Fujian provinces.The highly suitable habitat was 5.011×105 km2,and the moderately suitable habitat was 7.001×105 km2.The main environmental driving factors included BIO14(precipitation of the driest month),BIO6(minimum temperature of the coldest month),BIO18(precipitation of the warmest quarter),BIO3(isothermality),BIO17(precipitation of the driest quarter)and ALTITUDE(altitude).Under future climate scenarios,the highly suitable habitat of T.wilfordii generally decreased.From 2021 to 2 100,the highly suitable areas under SSP126,SSP245,SSP370,and SSP585 scenarios were projected to decline to 4.402×105,3.377×105,2.674×105 and 2.178×105 km2,respectively.Habitat fragmentation was expected to intensify,and the distribution centroid would slightly shift toward the northeast.[Conclusion]This study reveals the distribution dynamics of T.wilfordii under climate change and provides a scientific basis for its resource conservation,habitat management,and climate-adaptive introduction.The results offer important references for dynamic assessment and strategy formulation of medicinal plant suitable habitats.关键词
雷公藤/MaxEnt模型/物种分布模型/气候变化/潜在适宜生境Key words
Tripterygium wilfordii/MaxEnt model/Species distribution model/Climate change/Potential suitable habitat分类
农业科技引用本文复制引用
杨国礼,郭小燕,陈子豪,刘学录,李晓丹..基于MaxEnt模型的中国雷公藤气候适生区评价与时空演变预测[J].华南农业大学学报,2026,47(5):790-803,14.基金项目
甘肃省自然科学基金(24JRRA641) （24JRRA641）
