江淮水利科技2026，Vol.21Issue(4)：1-8,12,9.DOI:10.20011/j.cnki.JHWR.202604001
安徽省水文序列一致性分析
Consistency analysis of hydrological series in Anhui Province
摘要
Abstract
To investigate the trends and change-point characteristics of precipitation and streamflow series in Anhui Province and to elucidate their homogeneity patterns and underlying driving mechanisms,the Mann-Kendall trend test and the sequential clustering method for change-point detection were applied to assess the homogeneity of hydrological series from five represen tative hydrological stations,including Mingguang and Huangnizhuang stations in the Huaihe River Basin,Taoxi and Zhoujiahe stations in the Yangtze River Basin,and Yuetan Station in the Qiantang River Basin.The reliability of the detected change points was further verified by comparing the precipitation-streamflow relationships before and after the identified change points.The streamflow series at Mingguang station exhibited one change point,whereas no significant trend or abrupt change was detected in the precipitation series.Neither the precipitation nor the streamflow series at Huangnizhuang station showed significant trends or abrupt changes.At Zhoujiahe station,both the precipitation and streamflow series were divided into three homogeneous periods,with nearly identical change points.At Taoxi station,the streamflow series was divided into two homogeneous periods,while no significant trend or abrupt change was identified in the precipitation series.At Yuetan station,the detected change points of the precipitation and streamflow series were consistent.The results indicated that the precipitation and streamflow series at Huangnizhuang station were homogeneous.In contrast,the precipitation and streamflow series at Zhoujiahe and Yuetan stations exhibited similar patterns of non-homogeneity,suggesting that changes in precipitation were an important driver of streamflow variation.At Mingguang and Taoxi stations,the precipitation series remained homogeneous,whereas the streamflow series were non-homogeneous,implying that streamflow variations may be influenced by factors other than precipitation.关键词
水文资料/降水-径流关系/一致性分析/Mann-Kendall检验/有序聚类法/安徽省Key words
hydrological data/precipitation-runoff relationship/consistency analysis/Mann-Kendall test/ordered clustering method/Anhui Province分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
沈捷,尚影,方涛,周玉良..安徽省水文序列一致性分析[J].江淮水利科技,2026,21(4):1-8,12,9.基金项目
国家自然科学基金资助项目(52379006) （52379006）
安徽省自然科学基金资助项目(2308085US13,2408055US007) （2308085US13,2408055US007）
