情报杂志2026，Vol.45Issue(8)：9-13,36,6.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1002-1965.2026.08.002
基于三重噪音理论的春节攻势美国情报失误研究
Study of U.S.Intelligence Failure in the Tet Offensive Based on Triple Noise Theory
摘要
Abstract
[Purpose]The Tet Offensive launched by North Vietnam in 1968 constituted a costly"intelligence warning failure"for the U.S.intelligence community.Using Michael I.Handel's triple noise theory as a key analytical lens,this study analyzes the deep-seated cau-ses of U.S.intelligence failure prior to the offensive and examines the theory's explanatory power in a specific historical context.[Meth-od]Employing a comprehensive method integrating historical research,documentary analysis and case study methods,it sorts through and interprets historical archives and relevant documents pertaining to the Tet Offensive,deconstructing three layers of noise:North Vietnam's strategic deception(enemy-induced noise),the optimistic atmosphere surrounding U.S.-Vietnam peace negotiations(environmental noise),and the rigid mindset of U.S.intelligence agencies(self-induced noise).[Result/Conclusion]The study reconstructs the gener-ation,diffusion,and ultimate superposition of these three noises,concluding that the warning failure was a product of their combined effect.This not only verifies and extends Handel's theory in historical settings but also extracts instructive implications for contemporary in-telligence work,including improving warning mechanisms and mitigating cognitive biases.关键词
三重噪音理论/春节攻势/情报失误/情报分析/越南战争/美国Key words
triple noise theory/the Tet Offensive/intelligence failure/intelligence analysis/the Vietnam War/U.S.分类
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赵菲,申华..基于三重噪音理论的春节攻势美国情报失误研究[J].情报杂志,2026,45(8):9-13,36,6.
