特种油气藏2026，Vol.33Issue(3)：62-71,10.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1006-6535.2026.03.007
基于RIME-XGBoost的泥页岩油产量预测方法
A production prediction method for shale oil in mud shale formations based on RIME-XGBoost
摘要
Abstract
Accurate production prediction remains difficult for hydraulically fractured horizontal wells in mud shale oil reservoirs because numerous geological and engineering factors jointly affect well performance.To solve this prob-lem,a big-data preprocessing method for shale oil production prediction was proposed by combining retrieval-aug-mented generation(RAG)technology with the DeepSeek large language model,increasing data collection efficiency by six times.A RIME-XGBoost model suitable for production prediction in mud shale reservoirs was constructed to achieve intelligent prediction of cumulative oil production from hydraulically fractured horizontal wells,and SHAP-based interpretability analysis was used to identify the key factors controlling production.The results show that the main controlling factors of mud shale oil production are vitrinite reflectance(Ro),compensated neutron,proppant in-tensity,sand-fluid ratio,logging-derived effective porosity,maximum horizontal principal stress,and total hydrocar-bon from gas logging.The RIME-XGBoost model yields a coefficient of determination(R2)of 0.936 and a predic-tion accuracy of 91.04%,demonstrating both high accuracy and strong interpretability.This study effectively addres-ses problems such as low efficiency in data preprocessing and poor model interpretability in traditional production prediction,and provides a data-driven solution for accurate productivity prediction and fracturing parameter optimi-zation in mud shale oil development,which is of great significance for the efficient development of mud shale oil.关键词
泥页岩油/机器学习/产量预测/智能压裂/地质工程一体化Key words
mud shale oil/machine learning/production prediction/intelligent fracturing/geology-engineering inte-gration分类
能源科技引用本文复制引用
杨二龙,殷世潭,王宇,王贤君,董驰..基于RIME-XGBoost的泥页岩油产量预测方法[J].特种油气藏,2026,33(3):62-71,10.基金项目
国家自然科学基金"高应力差致密油藏微观孔隙结构应力变形下原油动用机制研究"(52274037) （52274037）
