中国农村水利水电Issue(8)：20-25,6.DOI:10.12396/znsd.2501206
基于OPA的特大基坑导流方案风险决策方法研究
Research on Risk Decision-making for Diversion Schemes in Large-scale Deep Excavations Based on OPA
摘要
Abstract
The optimal selection of diversion schemes for water conservancy and hydropower projects is a multi-objective decision-making problem.This study addresses the unique risk scenario of an ultra-large-scale hydropower station project:its exceptionally large foundation pit area means that cofferdam breaching would trigger complete pit inundation,causing substantial economic losses and severe project delays.The decision-making process for diversion schemes in such extra-large foundation pits differs significantly from those in typical alpine canyon settings,necessitating comprehensive consideration of inundation-related losses.Building upon risk analysis of diversion standards,this research holistically evaluates four decision factors:deterministic investments in the diversion system,risk losses from extra-large foundation pits inundation,cofferdam filling intensity constraints,and dynamic risks during operation.Leveraging the characteristics of the Ordinal Priority Approach(OPA),we establish an enhanced OPA-based risk decision model to analyze alternative schemes.Case studies demonstrate that this method effectively captures the risk-loss characteristics of mega-foundation-pit diversion systems and facilitates optimal scheme selection.关键词
特大基坑/风险决策/施工导流Key words
extra-large foundation pit/risk decision-making/construction diversion分类
建筑与水利引用本文复制引用
张超,刘全,刘杰元,张小蕾,罗立哲..基于OPA的特大基坑导流方案风险决策方法研究[J].中国农村水利水电,2026,(8):20-25,6.基金项目
中国电建集团成都勘测设计研究院有限公司科技项目(P46020)(P65825) （P46020）
中国长江三峡集团有限公司科研项目(202203010). （202203010）
