中国农村水利水电Issue(8)：26-31,6.DOI:10.12396/znsd.2501170
基于博弈论—改进可拓云的土石坝运行安全评价
Safety Evaluation of Earth-rock Dam Operation Based on Game Theory and Improved Extension Cloud Model
摘要
Abstract
The safety assessment of earth-rock dams is challenged by indicator interdependencies,unreasonable weight assignment,and inherent uncertainties.To address these issues,this study developed a comprehensive evaluation index system.Methodologically,the DEMATEL-ISM model was first applied to elucidate the internal correlations and hierarchical structure of the indicators.Subsequently,subjective and objective weights were determined using integrated AHP-DEMATEL and improved CRITIC methods,respectively,and combined optimally via game theory.Finally,the safety grade was determined using an extension cloud model enhanced by an improved optimal cloud entropy.Based on this,a"refinement-internal connection-complementarity-optimization"four-in-one concept-based safety rating method for earth-rock dams is constructed.Finally,taking the Mengjin Reservoir earth-rock dam as the research object,the results show that the safety level of this earth-rock dam is"Grade V"(Erx=4.675 7),and its operation is"safe".Seepage damage is the key risk source of this earth-rock dam project.Compared with the traditional extension cloud model,the evaluation results are consistent with the actual situation and have a high credibility(λ=0.003 0),which can provide a reference for the safety evaluation of dams.关键词
土石坝运行安全评价/DEMATEL-ISM/博弈论/改进可拓云Key words
operation safety evaluation of earth-rockfill dam/DEMATEL-ISM/game theory/improved extension cloud分类
建筑与水利引用本文复制引用
宋元明,何新林,李小龙,刘鑫,杜永军..基于博弈论—改进可拓云的土石坝运行安全评价[J].中国农村水利水电,2026,(8):26-31,6.基金项目
新疆生产建设兵团重点科技攻关计划项目(2023AB059) （2023AB059）
2024兵团研究生创新项目(BTYJXM-2024-S10). （BTYJXM-2024-S10）
