中国实用内科杂志2026，Vol.46Issue(7)：583-590,8.DOI:10.19538/j.nk2026070109
初诊边缘区淋巴瘤早期进展预后模型的开发与验证:一项多中心回顾性研究
Prognostic model for early progression in newly diagnosed marginal zone lymphoma:development and validation in a multicenter retrospective cohort
摘要
Abstract
Objective Marginal zone lymphoma(MZL)exhibits significant heterogeneity in its prognostic course.This study aims to identify clinical prognostic factors associated with patient outcomes and construct a predictive model.Methods This study integrates clinical data from 125 newly diagnosed MZL patients across multiple centers,uses the LASSO-Cox method to select variables,and validates the findings in an independent external validation cohort.Results Five independent prognostic factors were identified through screening:gender,B symptoms,thrombocytopenia,hypoalbuminemia,and age.Based on these factors,the ASPAB-PI prognostic model for MZL was established.Internal validation yielded a C-index of 0.830(95％CI 0.76-0.90),and external validation yielded a C-index of 0.811(95％CI 0.65-0.98),demonstrating superior predictive capability compared to the existing MZL-1PI model.Risk stratification based on optimal cut-off points resulted in significantly separated survival curves for the low,intermediate,and high-risk groups in both the training and validation sets.The 24-month PFS rates for these groups were 91.92％,75.89％and 10.71％,respectively.Conclusion The five-factor MZL prediction model developed in this study has been validated as robust and feasible,effectively enabling individualized risk assessment.关键词
边缘区淋巴瘤/预后模型/风险分层Key words
marginal zone lymphoma/prognostic model/risk stratification分类
医药卫生引用本文复制引用
温智尧,华海应,方明远,陈亨,吴品,陆宏宾,叶龙,王中元,周柏彤,顾思雨..初诊边缘区淋巴瘤早期进展预后模型的开发与验证:一项多中心回顾性研究[J].中国实用内科杂志,2026,46(7):583-590,8.基金项目
国家自然科学基金(82500211) （82500211）
江苏省自然科学基金(BK20240310) （BK20240310）
无锡市卫生健康委员会科研项目(Q202449) （Q202449）
无锡市青年人才支持项目(TJXD-2024-216) （TJXD-2024-216）
江南大学附属医院研究型医院医学科研项目(YJY202308) （YJY202308）
