重庆理工大学学报2026，Vol.40Issue(12)：123-137,15.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1674-8425(s).2026.06.011
经济环境不确定性对制造业全球价值链分工影响及作用机制
Research on the impact of economic environmental uncertainty on the labor division in manufacturing global value chains and its mechanism:Evidence from panel data of 31 countries and regions
摘要
Abstract
The current global economy is facing multiple uncertainties,which are profoundly affecting and reshaping the layout of manufacturing global value chain(GVC)labor division in various countries.Based on panel data of 31 countries and regions from 1995 to 2018,this paper empirically investigates howeconomic environmental uncertainty affects labor division in manufacturing global value chains and its underlying mechanisim.The findings show as follows:First,economic environmental uncertainty significantly reduces the GVC division status of manufacturing industries,resulting in a decline in forward participation and a rise in backward participation.Secondly,economic environmental uncertainty exerts a stronger inhibitory effect on manufacturing GVCs in the Asia-Pacific region,countries with weak innovation capacity and institutionally constrained countries.It significantly pushes up the backward participation of the Asia-Pacific region and inhibits the forward participation of European and American countries,while countries with robust institutional frameworks and strong innovation capacities exhibit superior risk resilience.Thirdly,further analysis indicates that economic environmental uncertainty primarily operates through altering outward foreign direct investment(OFDI)and manufactured goods imports,while trade agreements can effectively alleviate its negative impact.Based on the conclusions,this paper proposes targeted policy suggestions from three dimensions:building a stable and predictable institutional environment,accelerating the improvement of independent innovation capacity,and advancing high-standard opening-up.关键词
经济环境不确定性/制造业全球价值链/国际贸易/国际投资Key words
economic environmental uncertainty/manufacturing global value chain/international trade/international investment分类
管理科学引用本文复制引用
胡成春,田浩,汤岳陵..经济环境不确定性对制造业全球价值链分工影响及作用机制[J].重庆理工大学学报,2026,40(12):123-137,15.基金项目
国家社会科学基金项目"中美贸易政策不确定性对我国先进制造业全球价值链分工影响与应对研究"(22XJY010) （22XJY010）
重庆市研究生科研创新项目"地缘政治风险对先进制造业全球价值链分工地位影响研究"(CYS25806) （CYS25806）
重庆理工大学研究生创新项目"制造业全球价值链影响因素研究——基于全球经济政策不确定性视角"(gzlcx20253579) （gzlcx20253579）
