国际石油经济2026，Vol.34Issue(8)：105-112,8.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1004-7298.2026.08.010
海外油气并购或有对价与勘探资产估值分析
Contingent consideration and exploration asset valuation in overseas oil and gas M&A
摘要
Abstract
Overseas oil and gas mergers and acquisitions(M&A)are characterized by multiple uncertainties involving resources evaluation,government approvals,project development,and oil price fluctuations,making it difficult to accurately estimate valuation parameters.Due to valuation discrepancies between acquirers and targets,M&A negotiations often face difficulties in reaching agreements.Contingent consideration divides the valuation of target companies or assets into a fixed upfront payment and a performance-based contingent consideration linked to future developments,mitigating valuation differences arising from information asymmetry,preventing the acquirer from paying excessive premiums before uncertainties are resolved,and avoiding the risk of cash flow shortages caused by one-time full settlement at the closing date.This paper explores the theoretical basis and structural elements of contingent consideration and proposes a multi-dimensional contingent consideration design framework for exploration asset M&A by aligning geological risks with resource certification milestones,regulatory approval risks with FID(Final Investment Decision)nodes,development risks with production deposits and first LNG shipment,and price risks with oil price threshold triggers on the basis of analyzing the asset characteristics and consideration structure of two typical cases such as Total's acquisition of Interoil's Elk-Antelope assets and bp's purchase of Kosmos'GTA gas field assets.The findings indicate that contingent consideration clauses follow a risk-matching principle,resource certification based contingent consideration may adopt a multi-stage certification and payment mechanism,output-based payments linked to oil prices provide a feasible solution to hedge price risks;and contingent consideration exerts significant impacts on accounting and taxation treatments.关键词
海外油气并购/或有对价/勘探资产估值/信息不对称/风险对冲Key words
overseas oil and gas M&A/contingent consideration/exploration asset valuation/information asymmetry/risk hedging分类
管理科学引用本文复制引用
王青,赵旭,孙杜芬,张一..海外油气并购或有对价与勘探资产估值分析[J].国际石油经济,2026,34(8):105-112,8.基金项目
国家科技重大专项"全球低碳发展趋势对海外新项目评价决策影响研究"(项目编号:2025ZD400804) （项目编号:2025ZD400804）
