光通信研究Issue(4)：179-185,7.DOI:10.13756/j.gtxyj.2026.240239
一种OPGW多参量冰厚组合预测方法
An OPGW Multi-Parameter Ice Thickness Combination Prediction Method
摘要
Abstract
[Objective]Optical Fiber Composite Overhead Ground Wire(OPGW)is a kind of composite fiber optic cable de-signed for high-voltage transmission lines,which has a wide range of applications in power transmission lines.However,the ice-covering problem of OPGW cables can seriously affect the safe and stable operation of transmission lines.In order to improve the accuracy of the prediction of the ice-covering thickness of OPGW fiber optic cable,this paper proposes a multi-parameter ice thickness prediction method for OPGW.[Methods]In this paper,we propose a Combining Improved Circle Mapping and Gold-en Sine Algorithm with Subtraction-Average-based Optimizer(ICGSABO)to optimize the parameter selection of Back Propaga-tion(BP)neural network.In this method,the OPGW fiber optic cable ice-covering data collected by Brillouin Optical Time-Do-main Reflectometer(BOTDR)equipment and meteorological sensors are firstly decomposed by Variational Modal Decomposition(VMD)algorithm.This process yields modal components at different frequencies,termed Intrinsic Mode Functions(IMFs),thereby reducing the instability of the original sequence.Secondly,the BP neural network is constructed with the Mean Square Er-ror(MSE)as the loss function.The ICGSABO algorithm is constructed using the improved Circle mapping and golden sine algo-rithm to optimize the weights and thresholds of the BP neural network to improve the global search capability and convergence speed of the model.Finally,each modal component is input into the ICGSABO-BP model to obtain the predicted value of ice cover thickness,and the prediction results of each component are superimposed and reconstructed.[Results]The experimental results show that the multicomponent ice thickness prediction method significantly outperforms other models in the prediction range of ice cover thickness from 0 to 30 mm,with a prediction accuracy(R2)of 0.962 22 and a MSE of 0.247 79,which verifies the effectiveness of the proposed model.[Conclusion]This ice thickness prediction model can take full advantage of the strain of fi-ber optic cables,temperature data and meteorological data to generate more accurate prediction results,which has an important ap-plication value for power grid security monitoring.关键词
光纤复合架空地线光缆/多参量/冰厚预测/变分模态分解Key words
OPGW optic cable/multi-parameter/ice thickness prediction/VMD分类
信息技术与安全科学引用本文复制引用
刘丹妮,沈思鹏,窦增,孙浩然,苏伟佳..一种OPGW多参量冰厚组合预测方法[J].光通信研究,2026,(4):179-185,7.基金项目
国网吉林省电力有限公司科技资助项目(2023-46) （2023-46）
