干旱区地理2026，Vol.49Issue(8)：1711-1723,13.DOI:10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2025.486
黄河流域乡镇人口分布格局的演变特征及其驱动机制
Evolutionary characteristics and driving mechanisms of population distribution patterns in townships along the Yellow River Basin
摘要
Abstract
Fine-scale analyses of population changes are theoretically and practically significant important for deepening the understanding of human-land system coupling mechanisms and optimizing regional development policies.Drawing on the data of the fifth,sixth,and seventh Chinese national population censuses,this study sys-tematically analyzes the evolutionary characteristics and driving mechanisms of spatial distribution patterns of town-ship-level populations in the Yellow River Basin from 2000 to 2020,using comprehensive methods such as GIS spa-tial analysis,standard deviation ellipse,and geographical detection.The results indicate the following:(1)The popu-lation density distribution in the Yellow River Basin exhibits a pattern of showing high values in the east and low ones in the west,which is in alignment with the distribution pattern of economic development levels.During the study period,township population shrinkage was pronounced,with 5530 townships experiencing population de-cline,accounting for 59.89%of the total township population.(2)The population distribution displays a strong spatial autocorrelation.During the study period,there were 935 high-high type townships and 2406 low-low ones.The hotspots of population growth expanded from north to south and from east to west,and the cold spots of population growth formed a stable pattern of central collapse.The center of gravity of the population distribu-tion was in Jincheng City,Shanxi Province,and it exhibited a slow northward migration trend.(3)Geographical detector analysis reveals that the synergistic effects of natural geographical conditions,levels of economic devel-opment,and locational factors were the key mechanisms shaping the population distribution pattern in the town-ships of the Yellow River Basin,with stronger synergistic effects observed between natural and locational factors.The dominant influencing factors vary across regions,and per capita arable land area exerted the most significant constraint effect on population distribution.关键词
影响因素/地理探测器/人口空间分布/空间格局演化/黄河流域Key words
influencing factors/geographical detector/population spatial distribution/spatial pattern evolution/Yellow River Basin引用本文复制引用
罗庆,臧永婷,王云龙,王山冰,刘乐..黄河流域乡镇人口分布格局的演变特征及其驱动机制[J].干旱区地理,2026,49(8):1711-1723,13.基金项目
教育部人文社会科学研究一般项目(25YJA790046) （25YJA790046）
河南省哲学社会科学规划项目(2023BSH002) （2023BSH002）
河南省高校哲学社会科学基础研究重大项目(2025-JCZD-11) （2025-JCZD-11）
河南省高等学校重点科研项目(25A790004)资助 （25A790004）
