环境工程学报2026，Vol.20Issue(8)：2612-2620,9.DOI:10.12030/j.cjee.202512020
基于LMDI与Kaya恒等式的上海市碳排放驱动力分析及预测
Analysis of carbon emission drivers and emission forecasting in Shanghai:An LMDI and Kaya identity approach
章睿 1张波 2宋学行 1孟思旭 1沈群 3徐苏云 4孙楠楠3
作者信息
- 1. 上海理工大学环境与建筑学院,上海 200093||中国科学院上海高等研究院,中国科学院低碳转化科学与工程重点实验室,上海 201210
- 2. 中国科学院上海高等研究院,中国科学院低碳转化科学与工程重点实验室,上海 201210||上海电力大学经济与管理学院,上海 201306
- 3. 中国科学院上海高等研究院,中国科学院低碳转化科学与工程重点实验室,上海 201210
- 4. 上海理工大学环境与建筑学院,上海 200093
- 折叠
摘要
Abstract
Shanghai,a typical representative of China's rapid economic growth and urbanization,provides critical insight for regional and national low-carbon transitions through its carbon emission drivers and evolutionary pathways.This study developed an integrated forecasting model by combining the logarithmic mean divisia index(LMDI)decomposition method with the Kaya identity to analyze driving factors and project emission trends under three scenarios(baseline,low-carbon,and carbon neutrality)for 2025-2060.Results show that economic expansion and population growth were positive drivers of carbon emissions,with economic scale being the most prominent contributor.Conversely,industrial structure upgrading,energy efficiency improvement,and energy decarbonization effectively suppressed emission growth.Long-term projections reveal distinct evolution paths:the baseline scenario maintains high emissions,hindering carbon neutrality goals;the low-carbon scenario demonstrates substantial reduction potential through enhanced policy and technological advances;and the carbon neutrality scenario outlines an ideal low-carbon path through deep decarbonization and electrification.Future carbon governance in Shanghai should shift from efficiency-focused measures to structural optimization and institutional innovation,providing a practical example for decarbonizing energy,industrial,and urban systems.关键词
碳排放驱动因素/LMDI分解/情景预测/上海市/低碳转型Key words
carbon emission drivers/LMDI decomposition/scenario analysis/Shanghai/low-carbon transition分类
资源环境引用本文复制引用
章睿,张波,宋学行,孟思旭,沈群,徐苏云,孙楠楠..基于LMDI与Kaya恒等式的上海市碳排放驱动力分析及预测[J].环境工程学报,2026,20(8):2612-2620,9.
