甘蔗糖业2026，Vol.55Issue(4)：120-132,13.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1005-9695.2026.04.011
2025/26年榨季国内外食糖市场回顾与2026/27年榨季展望
Review of the Global and Chinese Sugar Market in the 2025/26 Crushing Season and Outlook for the 2026/27 Crushing Season
摘要
Abstract
This paper aims to systematically analyze the supply-demand dynamics and price trends of the global and Chinese sugar markets during the 2025/26 crushing season,and to provide an outlook for the 2026/27 crushing season,so as to offer a reference for decision-making in the sugar industry and for safeguarding national sugar security.In the 2025/26 crushing season,the global sugar market shifted from deficit to surplus,with production rising to 181 million tonnes.ICE raw sugar futures declined from 16.78 cents/lb to 13.47 cents/lb,reaching the lowest level in nearly five seasons,although temporary rebounds occurred due to rising crude oil prices and weather-related uncertainties.In China,sugar production reached 12.95 million tonnes,up 16％year-on-year,a 12-season high;imports increased by 26.2％as of May 2026 during the 2025/26 crushing season.The significant supply expansion,combined with only modest consumption growth to 15.70 million tonnes,led to a 98.7％surge in industrial inventories and a drop in the production-to-sales ratio to 65.3％as of the end of June 2026 during the same crushing season.Zhengzhou sugar futures fell from approximately 5 500 yuan/tonne to around 5 100 yuan/tonne,with the basis narrowing and temporarily turning negative.Looking ahead to the 2026/27 crushing season,the global sugar market is expected to shift from surplus to a tighter balance,with a projected supply deficit of 0.25-0.6 million tonnes,and the international price center is likely to move modestly higher,with ICE raw sugar futures expected to fluctuate within a range of 13.0-18.0 cents/lb.In China,amid sustained high production and stable consumption,the market is expected to remain in a relatively loose supply-demand balance,with Zhengzhou sugar futures likely to fluctuate within a range of 5 100-5 700 yuan/tonne.Overall,factors such as adjustments in the sugarcane-to-ethanol ratio,export policies of major producing countries,global climate change,and the development of alternative sweeteners will continue to exert significant influence on sugar price volatility in both domestic and international markets.关键词
食糖/供需格局/产量/消费/价格/出口政策Key words
Sugar/Supply-demand dynamics/Production/Consumption/Price/Export policy分类
轻工纺织引用本文复制引用
刘晓雪,赵佳琳,李祎枭..2025/26年榨季国内外食糖市场回顾与2026/27年榨季展望[J].甘蔗糖业,2026,55(4):120-132,13.基金项目
国家现代农业产业技术体系(糖料)建设专项资金(CARS-17) （糖料）
