计算机工程与科学2026，Vol.48Issue(8)：1380-1387,8.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1007-130X.2026.08.005
基于贝叶斯网络和概率树的时间敏感工控系统风险评估
Risk assessment of time-sensitive industrial control system based on Bayesian network and probability tree
摘要
Abstract
Bayesian network is a popular probabilistic graphical model that can be used to construct risk assessment models for analyzing the security status of a system.In time-sensitive industrial control systems,risks permeate among devices,forming risk propagation loops,which makes it difficult to di-rectly use Bayesian network for risk analysis.Based on this,this paper proposes a risk assessment method based on Bayesian network and probability tree.Firstly,a risk propagation graph for time-sensitive industrial control systems is constructed to map risk propagation paths.Secondly,path search algorithm and probability tree are combined to eliminate loops in the propagation paths.Finally,a Bayesian network-based risk assessment model is established to realize risk assessment.In simulation experiments,the deterministic communication process between an industrial field controller and a motor is used as the experimental object,verifying that the proposed method can effectively perform risk as-sessment for time-sensitive industrial control systems.关键词
时间敏感工控系统/风险评估/贝叶斯网络/概率树/环路消除Key words
time-sensitive industrial control system/risk assessment/Bayesian network/probability tree/loop elimination分类
信息技术与安全科学引用本文复制引用
张会迈,钱永傲,胡晓娅,燕葵,张卫平,陈涛..基于贝叶斯网络和概率树的时间敏感工控系统风险评估[J].计算机工程与科学,2026,48(8):1380-1387,8.基金项目
国家自然科学基金(62173153) （62173153）
深圳市科技计划(CJGJZD20220517142404010) （CJGJZD20220517142404010）
