电力系统保护与控制2026，Vol.54Issue(16)：81-92,12.DOI:10.19783/j.cnki.pspc.260023
考虑极端场景与条件风险价值的氢储能容量配置方法
A capacity planning method for hydrogen energy storage incorporating extreme scenarios and conditional value at risk
摘要
Abstract
In recent years,the increasing frequency of extreme weather events has significantly exacerbated the operational risks of power systems.To enhance the resilience and continuous power supply capability of power systems under extreme weather conditions,this paper proposes a hydrogen energy storage planning method that incorporates extreme scenarios and tail-risk assessment.First,the correlations between renewable energy outputs and various meteorological factors are analyzed,and representative typical and extreme renewable energy output scenarios are generated using a K-based multidimensional time series clustering algorithm.Second,considering the dynamic efficiency characteristics of proton exchange membrane(PEM)electrolyzers,a rotation-based operating strategy for electrolyzer arrays is developed,and a comprehensive mathematical model of the hydrogen energy storage system is established.Then,a tail-risk assessment and quantification approach based on conditional value at risk(CVaR)is introduced.Taking the minimization of the total system cost as the optimization objective,a hydrogen energy storage capacity planning model that simultaneously incorporates both typical and extreme scenarios is formulated.Finally,numerical case studies demonstrate that the proposed model can effectively optimize the system configuration scheme and ensure the safe and stable operation of new-type power systems under extreme scenarios.关键词
新型电力系统/极端场景/氢储能/风险评估/储能配置Key words
new power system/extreme scenarios/hydrogen energy storage/risk assessment/energy storage capacity planning引用本文复制引用
李志伟,杜晓颖,王佳凯,赵书强..考虑极端场景与条件风险价值的氢储能容量配置方法[J].电力系统保护与控制,2026,54(16):81-92,12.基金项目
This work is supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.52307098). 国家自然科学基金项目资助(52307098) （No.52307098）
中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金项目资助(2025MS112) （2025MS112）
河北省研究生专业学位教学案例(库)项目资助(KCJSZ 2025113) （库）
