南水北调与水利科技（中英文）2026，Vol.24Issue(4)：829-841,13.DOI:10.13476/j.cnki.nsbdqk.2026.0078
黄河流域产水服务供需时空演变特征
Temporal and spatial evolution of supply and demand of water yield services in the Yellow River basin
摘要
Abstract
This study quantitatively assessed the evolutionary characteristics of the supply,demand,and supply-demand matching of water production services in the Yellow River basin using the InVEST model's water production module,quota method,and spatial autocorrelation analysis based on multi-source data from the year 2000 to 2023 in order to uncover the law of water supply-demand balance in the basin and support accurate regulation of water resources.The results indicate that:(1)During the study period,the average annual water production in the basin ranged from 45.67 mm to 93.11 mm,highlighting a"fluctuating increasing"trend,with a spatial pattern of"high in the south and low in the north,high in the upper reaches and low in the middle and lower reaches";(2)Water demand presented a"first increasing and then stable"characteristic,with the proportion of agricultural water demand decreasing from 75.1%to 60.9%and domestic water demand increasing by 215%,and spatially,water demand in the middle and lower reaches was significantly higher than that in the upper reaches;(3)The average supply-demand index(SDI)ranged from-0.396 to-0.152,indicating a state of"supply less than demand"with spatial differentiation characterized by"local overload in the upper reaches,extreme imbalance in the middle reaches,and continuous deficit in the lower reaches";(4)Water supply and demand showed significant spatial autocorrelation.Spatially,the"high-high"type agglomerated in the humid zone of the upper reaches in the southwest,the"low-high"mismatched areas concentrated in cities,towns,and irrigation areas in the middle and lower reaches with industrial transfer,and the"high-low"type stably distributed in ecological protection areas,highlighting the features of spatial differentiation between supply and demand.This study can offer a scientific foundation for the coordinated management of water resources as well as ecological preservation and restoration in the Yellow river basin.关键词
产水服务/黄河流域/供需平衡/InVEST模型/时空演变Key words
water yield service/Yellow River basin/supply-demand balance/InVEST model/temporal and spatial evolution分类
建筑与水利引用本文复制引用
王慧亮,刘英杰,李自强,赵赟,邢建建,严登明..黄河流域产水服务供需时空演变特征[J].南水北调与水利科技（中英文）,2026,24(4):829-841,13.基金项目
国家自然科学基金面上项目(52279028) （52279028）
