生态与农村环境学报2026，Vol.42Issue(8)：1047-1058,12.DOI:10.19741/j.issn.1673-4831.2025.0140
苏北地区县域土地利用碳排放时空演变及驱动机制研究
Spatio-temporal Evolution and Driving Mechanisms of County-level Land Use Carbon Emissions in Northern Jiangsu
摘要
Abstract
Investigating the spatio-temporal evolution and driving mechanisms of land use carbon emissions(LUCE)is of paramount practical significance for promoting low-carbon sustainable development at the county level.Taking 37 counties in Northern Jiangsu as the study area,this research integrated multisource data—including land use,nighttime lights,and energy statistics—to analyze the spatio-temporal differentiation and drivers of county-level LUCE from 2000 to 2020.The methodology employed spatial autocorrelation,standard deviational ellipse(SDE),the STIRPAT model,and the geo-graphically and temporally weighted regression(GTWR)model.The results indicate that:From 2000-2020,the overall LUCE growth rate in Northern Jiangsu reached 226.83%,accompanied by a 43.99%increase in construction land area.Temporally,carbon emissions exhibited a three-stage trajectory:"rapid growth—decelerated growth—stabilization."Spa-tially,a distribution pattern emerged with higher concentrations in the northwest and southeast and lower levels in the cen-tral region.The global Moran's I index decreased from 0.211 to 0.208,suggesting a slight weakening in spatial agglomera-tion.Furthermore,the LUCE centroid shifted 8.61 km toward the southeast.Economic scale(F3,GDP)was identified as the predominant driver,with a maximum regression coefficient of 4.961 6.While the emission-reduction effect of energy intensity(F7,EI)progressively emerged,it exhibited a noticeable time lag.Moreover,the impact intensity of various driving factors on LUCE showed significant spatial heterogeneity.Systematically elucidating the influence of these factors on LUCE evolution enables the effective identification of spatio-temporal driving effects,providing scientific evidence for the formulation of differentiated carbon reduction policies in Northern Jiangsu.关键词
土地利用碳排放/县域/时空演变/时空地理加权回归/驱动机制Key words
land use carbon emissions/county-level/spatio-temporal evolution/geographically and temporally weighted regression/driving mechanism分类
管理科学引用本文复制引用
武紫涵,佟帅,季翔..苏北地区县域土地利用碳排放时空演变及驱动机制研究[J].生态与农村环境学报,2026,42(8):1047-1058,12.基金项目
国家重点研发计划(2018YFD1100203) （2018YFD1100203）
江苏建筑节能与建造技术协同创新中心重大研究基金计划项目(SJXTZD21052) （SJXTZD21052）
江苏省研究生科研创新计划(KYCX23_2737) （KYCX23_2737）
中国矿业大学研究生创新计划项目(2023WLKXJ058) （2023WLKXJ058）
