热带气象学报2026，Vol.42Issue(4)：475-485,11.DOI:10.16032/j.issn.1004-4965.2026.024
基于NICAM的热带地区极端对流活动对全球变暖响应的研究
Response of Tropical Extreme Convective Activity to Global Warming Based on NICAM
摘要
Abstract
The tropics represent the most dynamically active region for deep convection globally,exerting a profound influence on the Earth's global energy cycle,hydrological cycle,and climate system.With global warming,increasing attention is being focused on how extreme convective weather will change in the future.This study examines the climatology of tropical extreme convective systems and their future projections using simulations from a global atmospheric model(NICAM)with a 14 km horizontal resolution against TRMM satellite observations.The results demonstrate that the NICAM model effectively reproduces the ambient atmospheric environment and convective activity in tropical regions,exhibiting correlation coefficients of 0.65(near-surface temperature)and 0.89(specific humidity)against ERA-5 reanalysis,respectively.The spatial and temporal correlations for extreme deep convective systems reach 0.53 and 0.77 with satellite observations,respectively.A comparison of 30-year historical(1979-2008)and future(2075-2104)extreme convection simulations reveals that while tropospheric specific humidity increases substantially under warming,but relative humidity over tropical land declines significantly,suggesting a robust trend toward drier tropical continental atmosphere in the future.Consequently,the frequency three distinct categories of extreme convective systems is projected to increase overall,with a markedly stronger enhancement over tropical oceans than over tropical landmasses.关键词
热带地区/极端对流系统/全球大气模式/TRMM卫星/全球变暖Key words
tropics/extreme convective systems/NICAM/TRMM satellite/global warming分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
贾丁,吴学珂,赵中阔,李晓彤,林嘉豪,胡宇航,胡国豪..基于NICAM的热带地区极端对流活动对全球变暖响应的研究[J].热带气象学报,2026,42(4):475-485,11.基金项目
国家自然科学基金(42275068) （42275068）
中国气象局"热带气象"重点创新团队(CMA2023ZD08)共同资助 （CMA2023ZD08）
