热带气象学报2026，Vol.42Issue(4)：486-498,13.DOI:10.16032/j.issn.1004-4965.2026.046
不同ENSO空间型对福建省前汛期降水异常的影响
Impacts of ENSO Spatial Patterns on Pre-flood Season Precipitation Anomalies in Fujian Province
摘要
Abstract
Based on precipitation data from 66 meteorological stations in Fujian Province from 1961 to 2024,alongside NOAA sea surface temperature(SST)and outgoing long wavelength radiation(OLR)datasets,and NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data,this study investigates the physical mechanisms linking diverse El Niño-Southern Oscillation(ENSO)spatial patterns to precipitation anomalies during the pre-flood season(April-June). The results indicate that pre-flood season precipitation accounts for 41.1%of the annual total and exhibits prominent interannual and decadal variations,showing a spatial gradient that increases from the southeastern coast to the northwestern inland.During the decaying pre-flood season following an Eastern-Pacific(EP)El Niño,precipitation across the province is generally above normal,with significant enhancement in the northwestern region(Nanping and Sanming).This is primarily driven by an anomalous western North Pacific anticyclone(WNPAC),resembling a negative phase of the Western Pacific(anti-WP)pattern,which substantially intensifies southwesterly moisture flux into Fujian in cooperation with enhanced localized convection(negative OLR anomalies).Conversely,following an EP La Niña,precipitation is profoundly suppressed statewide as the large-scale circulation exhibits a typical positive WP pattern that severely obstructs moisture supply.Following a Central-Pacific(CP)El Niño,precipitation displays a distinct"north-rich and south-poor"spatial pattern;the Western Pacific subtropical high(WPSH)shifts westward and southward while the India-Burma trough weakens,confining significant moisture convergence to northern inland areas.Following a CP La Niña,precipitation increases primarily along the central and southern coasts-a trend closely linked to a higher frequency of early-season typhoons-although the seasonal mean intensity is constrained by widespread background moisture divergence.Mechanistically,EP El Niño events trigger a prominent"west-high and east-low"teleconnection wave train across mid-high latitude Eurasia at 500 hPa,which accelerates cold air outbreaks to confront the warm-moist airflow along the northern periphery of the WPSH.In contrast,CP events modify moisture transport pathways primarily through localized shifts of the WPSH and asymmetric tropical convective responses.This study highlights how ENSO spatial patterns modulate regional climate anomalies by reshaping large-scale circulations and moisture flux pathways,thereby providing crucial scientific insights for seasonal climate prediction and disaster mitigation over Southeast China.关键词
降水量/变化特征/ENSO空间型/大气响应/福建省前汛期Key words
precipitation/variation features/ENSO type/atmospheric response/pre-flood season in Fujian Province分类
海洋科学引用本文复制引用
罗冠婷,何芬,池艳珍,吴伟杰..不同ENSO空间型对福建省前汛期降水异常的影响[J].热带气象学报,2026,42(4):486-498,13.基金项目
灾害天气国家重点实验室开放课题(2024LASW-B32) （2024LASW-B32）
台风研究基金项目(TFJJ202411) （TFJJ202411）
福建省自然科学基金项目(2025J011226) （2025J011226）
福建省气象局面上科技项目(2025C17) （2025C17）
海峡数字气象创新研发基地开放课题(2025HXZD02) （2025HXZD02）
中国气象局复盘总结专项(FPZJ2026-061)共同资助 （FPZJ2026-061）
