气候变化研究进展2026，Vol.22Issue(4)：439-449,11.DOI:10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2026.016
碳中和背景下甘肃省光伏发电量的未来潜力评估
Future potential assessment of Gansu's photovoltaic power generation under carbon neutrality
摘要
Abstract
As a crucial photovoltaic base in China,Gansu province has become a key anchor for safeguarding national energy security and achieving the"dual carbon"goals.The CARE high resolution radiation product,site observations from Gansu,and CMIP6 simulations are integrated in this study to systematically evaluate future spatiotemporal evolution characteristics of theoretical photovoltaic power generation(TPG)in Gansu.The results indicate that the CMIP6 models demonstrate generally good simulation capabilities but with differences,with MRI-ESM2-0 performing the best.Future changes in TPG depend on the climate response mechanisms driven by socioeconomic development pathways.The future evolution of TPG in Gansu province is strongly dependent on emission pathways.Under the moderate forcing SSP2-4.5 scenario,TPG enters a rapid growth trajectory(reaching an increase of 2.55 kW·h/(m2·(10 a))by 21st mid-century).In contrast,under the high forcing SSP5-8.5 scenario,the"temperature penalty"on PV modules induced by extreme warming substantially offsets the radiative benefits,leading to a significant decline in the desert areas of western Gansu in the long term(locally up to-9 kW·h/(m2·(10 a))).Under the sustainable development pathway(SSP 1-2.6),TPG shows limited growth,with increases nearly stagnating after 21st mid-century.This study provides reliable data and decision support for regional photovoltaic potential assessment and strategic planning.关键词
理论光伏发电量(TPG)/甘肃省/CMIP6/多源观测/潜力评估Key words
Theoretical photovoltaic power generation(TPG)/Gansu province/CMIP6/Multi-source observation/Potential assessment引用本文复制引用
王菲菲,苏路豪,韩颖,李媛,刘艳,王孝三,茹建波,王天河..碳中和背景下甘肃省光伏发电量的未来潜力评估[J].气候变化研究进展,2026,22(4):439-449,11.基金项目
中国气象局青年创新团队(CMA2024QN13) （CMA2024QN13）
天池英才引进计划(2024) （2024）
