气候变化研究进展2026，Vol.22Issue(4)：484-498,15.DOI:10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2026.033
1981-2023年我国玉米产量时空演变及其驱动因素解析
Spatiotemporal dynamics of maize yield and its driving factors in China from 1981 to 2023
摘要
Abstract
Clarifying the spatiotemporal evolution of maize potential yield under climate change and disentangling the contributions of climatic factors versus agronomic advances are critical for global food security.China,as the world's second-largest maize producer,faces increasing challenges from warming and precipitation volatility.To quantify these impacts,this study integrated long-term data(1981-2023)from 248 agrometeorological stations across China.We employed the CERES-Maize model to simulate maize growth under three scenarios:optimal cultivar without water-fertilizer stress(S1),optimal cultivar with actual management(S2),and actual cultivar without water-fertilizer stress(S3).A panel threshold regression model was further applied to identify the nonlinear response thresholds of yield to key climatic factors(temperature,precipitation,diurnal temperature range,and sunshine duration).The results are as followed.From 1981 to 2023,the national actual yield increased at a rate of 147 kg/(hm2.a);however,28％of the stations experienced yield stagnation or decline.Conversely,potential yield exhibited a significant downward trend at 62％of the stations,indicating a tightening biophysical ceiling.Attribution analysis revealed that climate change negatively impacted yield(-38.6 kg/(hm2.a)),while technological progress contributed positively(185.6 kg/(hm2.a)).Notably,cultivar improvement was the dominant driver(except in the Northwest irrigation zone),accounting for 81.4％,whereas water and fertilizer management contributed only 18.6％.Threshold analysis identified growing-season mean temperature(threshold:20.5 ℃)and total precipitation(threshold:490.8 mm)as the primary limiting factors under actual production conditions.Scenario comparison demonstrated that eliminating water and fertilizer stress lowered the temperature threshold to 19.2℃,implying increased heat sensitivity under high-input conditions.Adopting optimal cultivars significantly reduced dependency on rainfall(lowering the precipitation threshold to 288.0 mm)and mitigated heat stress in high-temperature regions.Although optimal cultivars and sufficient inputs can enhance climate resilience and break through partial yield stagnation,they cannot fully eliminate the constraints of extreme climates,particularly high temperatures.Future strategies for high-yield systems must prioritize breakthroughs in overcoming heat limitations,as cultivar improvement remains the most effective pathway compared to the diminishing marginal returns of water-fertilizer intensification.关键词
CERES-Maize模型/玉米产量/水肥管理/玉米品种/气候阈值Key words
CERES-Maize model/Maize yield/Water and fertilizer management/Maize cultivar/Climatic thresholds引用本文复制引用
陈典鹏,张亮亮,庄慧敏,张朝..1981-2023年我国玉米产量时空演变及其驱动因素解析[J].气候变化研究进展,2026,22(4):484-498,15.基金项目
联合国教科文组织科学促进可持续发展国际十年(2024-2033,IDSSD)实施战略计划"气候变化与系统性风险治理" （2024-2033,IDSSD）
中国国家自然科学基金(42301107) （42301107）
