气候变化研究进展2026，Vol.22Issue(4)：521-535,15.DOI:10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2026.030
基于改进损失函数的动态CGE模型预估中国极端事件的经济损失
Estimating the economic losses of extreme events in China based on a dynamic CGE model with an improved loss function
摘要
Abstract
Extreme events triggered by global warming have had profound impacts on both natural ecosystems and socio-economic structures.Computable General Equilibrium(CGE)models are widely used for assessing the indirect economic losses caused by disasters.Based on an improved loss function,the direct economic losses caused by extreme events under different climate scenarios in China in the future are estimated in this paper,and these losses are embedded into a composite function of labor and capital in a dynamic CGE model to systematically estimate the indirect economic losses under long-term cumulative effects.The results show that the direct economic losses are the lowest under the SSP245 scenario.The ratios of direct economic losses to GDP under three scenarios(SSP126,SSP245 and SSP585)all present a trend of rising first and then falling,exhibiting a significant"multiplier effect"with a gradually increasing loss rate.The indirect economic losses under the SSP585 scenario are significantly higher than those under the other two scenarios.By 2060,the indirect economic losses will reach as much as ten times the direct economic losses.There are significant differences in the changes of indirect economic losses across three modules:production,trade,and balance of payments.In the production module,total output initially increases and then decreases,and except for the extractive industry,the output of the other six sectors decreases to varying degrees.In the trade module,the trends of total consumption and imports are relatively consistent,with exports showing a clear downward trend.In the balance of payments module,government revenue,household income,and household consumption all show a downward trend year by year.关键词
气候变化/可计算一般均衡(CGE)模型/经济损失/极端事件Key words
Climate change/Computable General Equilibrium(CGE)model/Economic loss/Extreme event引用本文复制引用
王雅祺,丑洁明,赵卫星..基于改进损失函数的动态CGE模型预估中国极端事件的经济损失[J].气候变化研究进展,2026,22(4):521-535,15.基金项目
甘肃省科技重大专项(25ZDFA008) （25ZDFA008）
中国气象局气候变化专题项目(QBZJ202603) （QBZJ202603）
国家自然科学基金国际(地区)合作与交流项目A3前瞻计划项目(中日韩)(42261144687) （地区）
