情报杂志2026，Vol.45Issue(9)：31-39,15,10.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1002-1965.2026.09.005
刺激—反应模型视角下美以—伊朗情报博弈分析及启示
Analysis and Implications of the Intelligence Game Between the U.S.-Israel and Iran from the Perspective of the Stimulus-Response Model
摘要
Abstract
[Purpose]The"Epic Fury"joint military operations conducted by the United States and Israel against Iran have precipitated a complex,multi-layered intelligence contest.A rigorous analysis of the evolutionary dynamics underlying the U.S.-Israel-Iran intelli-gence rivalry-particularly the strategic asymmetries between technologically advanced and resource-constrained actors-offers valuable in-sights for enhancing the pertinence and operational effectiveness of national intelligence system development and capacity-building initia-tives.[Method]Grounded in the stimulus-response theoretical framework,this study employs the"Epic Fury"operations as an empirical case to conduct a systematic examination of the origins and typologies of intelligence stimuli,the rationale and selection criteria governing responsive countermeasures,and the iterative,feedback-driven mechanism that characterizes the intelligence interaction cycle.Based on this analysis,the study distills the defining structural and behavioral features of the contest.[Result/Conclusion]During the"Epic Fury"operations,the United States and Israel deployed three interrelated forms of intelligence-driven pressure:infiltration-oriented intelligence operations,strike-enabling intelligence support,and cognitive-domain interventions.In response,Iran implemented a calibrated tripartite counterstrategy comprising anti-infiltration safeguards,proportionate retaliatory measures,and proactive cognitive resilience initiatives-thereby mitigating adversarial advantages and sustaining operational continuity.The intelligence contest exhibits pronounced structural a-symmetry.The U.S.-Israeli alliance leverages systemic superiority in intelligence.Nevertheless,Iran has consistently demonstrated a-daptive strategic resilience through asymmetric approaches-suggesting that protracted,low-intensity confrontation remains the most likely trajectory.In light of these findings,the U.S.-Israel-Iran intelligence rivalry bears important implications for institutionalizing a defensive intelligence strategy;aligning intelligence modernization with broader national security and geopolitical strategy;deepening international intelligence cooperation;and strengthening the development of the national intelligence system.关键词
美以—伊朗情报博弈/"史诗怒火"行动/刺激—反应模型/情报安全/国家安全/地缘政治Key words
US-Israel-Iran intelligence game/"Operation Epic Fury"/stimulus-response model/intelligence security/national securi-ty/geopolitics分类
社会科学引用本文复制引用
宋国新,任浩源,李德杰..刺激—反应模型视角下美以—伊朗情报博弈分析及启示[J].情报杂志,2026,45(9):31-39,15,10.基金项目
国家社会科学基金青年项目"'一带一路'沿线海外利益安全保护机制的供需困境与创新研究"(编号:23CGJ013) （编号:23CGJ013）
吉林省社会科学基金重点项目"吉林省在维护国家'五大安全'中的重要使命研究"(编号:2025A18)研究成果. （编号:2025A18）
