情报杂志2026，Vol.45Issue(9)：63-69,87,8.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1002-1965.2026.09.009
特朗普第二任期情报团队内部工作分歧及其影响
Internal Divisions Within Trump's Second-Term Intelligence Team and Their Implications
摘要
Abstract
[Purpose]This article examines the main manifestations,mechanisms,and policy implications of internal working differences within Trump's second-term intelligence team.It seeks to explain why intra-elite competition persisted after high-level appointments had been largely reshaped around political loyalty,and how such competition has affected the U.S.policy outputs toward China,Russia,and Iran.[Method]Building on previous studies of president-intelligence relations during Trump's first term,Trump-era intelligence re-form,and bureaucratic politics,this article analyzes the 2025 and 2026 Annual Threat Assessments of the U.S.Intelligence Community,congressional hearing materials,and major English-language media reports to examine competition over authority,differences in profes-sional judgment,and variation in policy instruments within Trump's second-term intelligence team.[Result/Conclusion]This article finds that the principal contradiction within the intelligence system in Trump's second term no longer primarily takes the form of open con-frontation between the president and the established intelligence bureaucracy.Instead,it is increasingly manifested in competition among loyalist senior officials over authority,threat prioritization,professional boundaries,and policy instruments.Rather than producing a hom-ogeneous and frictionless"loyal team",Trump's second term has generated a form of bureaucratic politics under conditions of loyalist con-solidation.On China,the differences appear as competition over pathways under a broad consensus on toughness;on Russia,they are re-flected mainly in the downplaying of threats and in struggles over interpretive authority;on Iran,they take the form of an open collision between professional assessment and the president's war narrative.These differences have already affected the public presentation of intelli-gence assessments,cross-agency coordination,and the stability of U.S.external policy signaling.关键词
特朗普/情报团队/情报体系/情报评估/官僚政治/竞争性忠诚化/对外政策Key words
Trump's/intelligence team/intelligence system/intelligence assessment/bureaucratic politics/competitive loyalist consolida-tion/foreign policy分类
社会科学引用本文复制引用
孟维瞻,袁良丞..特朗普第二任期情报团队内部工作分歧及其影响[J].情报杂志,2026,45(9):63-69,87,8.基金项目
国家社会科学基金重大项目"世界进入新的动荡变革期的主要特征和发展态势研究"(编号:25&ZD280)研究成果. （编号:25&ZD280）
