水力发电2026，Vol.52Issue(9)：31-37,7.
某流域梯级水电枢纽群连溃风险分析及溃坝过程模拟
Risk Analysis and Dam-break Process Simulation of Cascading Failure in a Cascade Hydropower System within a River Basin
摘要
Abstract
Under extreme loading conditions,the failure of a weak link within a cascade hydropower system can readily trigger basin-scale catastrophic disasters.Taking a cascade hydropower system MSKN-SPL-AETS in a representative river basin as a case study,and considering the impacts of flood and seismic hazards on the operational risk of the system,the failure pathways of the cascade system are identified,and a numerical simulation framework for cascading dam-break processes is established.The results indicate that:(a)after the flood regulation by MSKN Hydropower Station,the basin-wide flood risk is significantly reduced,ensuring that the cascade system remains unaffected by extreme flood events exceeding design standards;and(b)under seismic loading beyond the design basis,cascading dam failure initiated at MSKN is highly likely to induce full-section overflow and overtopping failure at the downstream SPL Hydropower Station,and the flood propagation process exhibits a pronounced cascading amplification effect,but timely emergency regulation of the AETS Hydraulic Project can effectively mitigate and control this chain-type risk.The proposed risk analysis and simulation methodology for cascading failures of hydropower systems can provide technical support for the formulation of emergency response plans and basin-scale risk management of cascade hydropower projects.关键词
水电枢纽群/溃坝路径/溃坝洪水/风险分析/数值模拟Key words
cascade hydropower system/dam-break failure pathway/dam-break flood/risk analysis/numerical simulation分类
建筑与水利引用本文复制引用
李思宇,丁凌园,黄健,单熠博,沈光泽,钟启明..某流域梯级水电枢纽群连溃风险分析及溃坝过程模拟[J].水力发电,2026,52(9):31-37,7.基金项目
国家重点研发计划(2024YFC3210602) （2024YFC3210602）
国家自然科学基金资助项目(52409138,52309159,U24A20182) （52409138,52309159,U24A20182）
水灾害防御全国重点实验室2025年度创新基金项目(Yk325002) （Yk325002）
