水力发电学报2026，Vol.45Issue(8)：1-12,12.DOI:10.11660/slfdxb.20260801
三峡建坝后长江中下游干流洪水空间来源分析
Spatial source analysis of flood events in middle and lower Yangtze River after Three Gorges dam construction
摘要
Abstract
Scientific identification of the spatial sources of mainstream flood events in the middle and lower Yangtze River basin is of great significance to the design of a regional flood control strategy and its engineering application.This study uses an improved method of principal component analysis(PCA)to screen significant flood fluctuation samples,based on the 2003-2022 daily average discharge series from this basin's mainstream and major tributaries.Major flood events are determined using warning water levels,through combining a three-zone Flood Combination Index(FCI),high-FCI years,and primary discharge combination patterns for different zones.The results indicate that the improved PCA extracts discharge fluctuating characteristics effectively,and significant samples with the first principal component(PC1)score above the threshold 1.36 are in good agreement with the real cases in the high range of flow discharge.Inter-annual variations occur in the distribution of consecutive significant-sample periods.In 2021,significant flood periods occurred quite late under the influence of autumn floods from the Han River,while in 2022,early-season inflow impacts were evident due to a"dry flood season".The year of 2020 was marked by typical basin-wide flood events,and regional floods dominated 2010,2012,2016,and 2017,consistent with historical flood records.关键词
长江中下游/警戒水位/干支流组合/改进主成分分析/流量组合指数Key words
middle and lower Yangtze River/warning water level/mainstream-tributary combination/improved principal component analysis/flood combination index分类
建筑与水利引用本文复制引用
张鸿洋,胡春宏,高宇,王大宇,任实,李琳琪,关见朝..三峡建坝后长江中下游干流洪水空间来源分析[J].水力发电学报,2026,45(8):1-12,12.基金项目
中国长江三峡集团有限公司科研项目(0704229) （0704229）
水利部泥沙科学与北方河流治理重点实验室开放研究基金项目(IWHR-SEDI-2024-10) （IWHR-SEDI-2024-10）
