水科学进展2026，Vol.37Issue(5)：800-813,14.DOI:10.14042/j.cnki.32.1309.2026.05.002
基于多方法集合评估的长江源区水沙变化归因分析
Attribution analysis of runoff and sediment load changes in the source region of the Yangtze River based on an ensemble of multiple methods
摘要
Abstract
Quantifying the relative contributions of climate change and human activities to runoff and sediment variations is essential for understanding hydrological processes in alpine regions.Based on hydro-meteorological data from 1960 to 2021 in the source region of the Yangtze River,this study systematically analyzed the driving mechanisms of runoff and sediment dynamics using the Double Mass Curve,the Slope Changing Ratio of Cumulative Quantity,and the elasticity coefficient methods.The results show that:① A significant warming and wetting trend was observed,with temperature and precipitation at the Zhimenda Station increasing by 0.37 ℃/(10 a)and 13.58 mm/(10 a)(p<0.01),respectively.② Spatial heterogeneity was evident:runoff at the Tuotuohe and Zhimenda stations increased significantly,whereas the Xinzhai Station exhibited a concurrent decrease in both runoff and sediment load.③ Climate change was the dominant driver for increased runoff,while sediment variations were predominantly controlled by human activities at Zhimenda Station.Conversely,the synchronized decrease in runoff and sediment at the Xinzhai Station was primarily driven by human activities.The three attribution analysis methods exhibit high consistency in identifying dominant driving factors,with the elasticity coefficient method exhibiting superior robustness.Multi-method ensemble analysis effectively mitigates the uncertainty inherent in individual approach,providing a more reliable scientific basis for attributing runoff and sediment variations in alpine basins.关键词
水沙变化/气候变化/双累积曲线法/累积量斜率变化率比较法/弹性系数法/长江源区Key words
runoff and sediment load variations/climate change/Double Mass Curve method/Slope Change Ratio of Cumulative Quantity method/elasticity coefficient method/the source region of the Yangtze River分类
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邹虹,朱玲慧,关颖慧,周金星..基于多方法集合评估的长江源区水沙变化归因分析[J].水科学进展,2026,37(5):800-813,14.基金项目
国家重点研发计划项目(2016YFE0202900) （2016YFE0202900）
国家自然科学基金项目(41601279) The study is financially supported by the National Key R&D Program of China(No.2016YFE0202900)and the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.41601279). （41601279）
