水科学进展2026，Vol.37Issue(5)：906-916,11.DOI:10.14042/j.cnki.32.1309.2026.05.010
金沙江下游梯级水库联合优化调度模型预测控制方案研究
Model predictive control scheme for joint operation of cascade reservoirs in the downstream Jinshajiang River
摘要
Abstract
This study introduces a Model Predictive Control(MPC)method to construct a MPC scheme for joint optimal operation of cascade reservoirs in the downstream Jinshajiang River.The successive approximation dynamic programming algorithm is used to search the optimal solution within a closed-loop with the objective of maximizing power generation over a forecast period,and subsequently executes optimal decisions in open-loop MPC scheme.Five forecast accuracy scenarios are configured for sensitive analysis by synthesizing systematic and random error characteristics.The forecasting and operating of the cascade reservoirs are simulated across a complete hydrological year,i.e.,water supply period,main flood prevention period,and impoundment periods,and compare with current joint operation scheme.Results demonstrate that:① Smaller forecast errors or longer forecast horizons lead to higher total hydropower generation of cascade reservoirs.② Compared with the joint operation scheme,the MPC scheme with a 3-day forecasting error variance can significantly reduce water spillage by 5.21 billion m3(-9.1%)and increase power generation by 2.96 billion kW·h(+1.5%).③ The MPC scheme exhibits profound intra-annual adaptability,which generates more power during the main flood prevention and impoundment periods while reduces spillway discharge during the refill period.The proposed MPC scheme features favorable control performance and strong robustness,and provides a new technical approach for implementing rolling"forecasting—operating—decision-making"for reservoir groups.关键词
梯级水库/联合调度/模型预测控制/水文预报/敏感性分析/金沙江下游Key words
cascade reservoir/joint operation/Model Predictive Control/hydrological forecasting/sensitivity analysis/downstream Jinshajiang River分类
建筑与水利引用本文复制引用
谢雨祚,郭生练,朱迪,郭卫,李立平..金沙江下游梯级水库联合优化调度模型预测控制方案研究[J].水科学进展,2026,37(5):906-916,11.基金项目
国家自然科学基金项目(524B2128 （）
U2340205) The study is financially supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.524B2128 （）
No.U2340205). （）
