水利水电技术（中英文）2026，Vol.57Issue(7)：148-161,14.DOI:10.13928/j.cnki.wrahe.2026.07.011
抚仙湖水位持续下降成因及2023年多因子贡献定量评估
Causes of continuous decline in water level of Fuxian Lake and quantitative evaluation of contributions of multiple factors in 2023
摘要
Abstract
[Objective]The persistent decline in the water level of Fuxian Lake has significantly impacted the ecological environment within its basin and the production and livelihoods in surrounding areas.Investigating the causes of this decline is crucial for protecting Fuxian Lake's ecosystem and realizing its socio-economic value.[Methods]A distributed hydrological model,Water and Energy Transfer Processes in Large River Basin(WEP-L),was applied to simulate the water resource volume of the Fuxian Lake Basin from 1956 to 2023.Based on the long-term average net water balance under natural conditions,the contributions of meteorological drought,the diversion of outflow from Xingyun Lake,water consumption,and external drainage to the reduction of Fuxian Lake's water volume in 2023 were quantified using observational data,contribution rate analysis,and the water balance equation.[Results]The result showed that:(1)the water level of Fuxian Lake generally showed a slow declining trend at a rate of 0.12 m·a-1,with a drop of 1.6 m below the multi-year average water level.(2)From 1956 to 2023,the inflow into Fuxian Lake from the entire basin showed a declining trend.In 2023,the net water balance of Fuxian Lake was-111 million m3,a decrease of 204 million m3 compared with the 93 million m3 under the multi-year average natural conditions.(3)According to the calculation of the water balance equation,the contribution rate of reduced precipitation and increased lake evaporation caused by rising temperatures to the net water balance decline of Fuxian Lake was 65.7％,the contribution rate of the Xingyun Lake diversion project was 19.6％,and the contribution rate of water consumption and external drainage was 14.7％.[Conclusion]The decline in Fuxian Lake's water level is influenced by multiple factors.The study highlights the dominant role of climate change,providing a scientific basis for watershed managers to formulate water resource allocation strategies and holding great significance for ensuring the ecological security of Fuxian Lake.关键词
WEP-L模型/水位下降/抚仙湖流域/气候干旱/水量平衡方程/贡献率/参数敏感性/影响因素Key words
WEP-L model/water level decline/Fuxian Lake Basin/meteorological drought/water balance equation/contribution rate/parameter sensitivity/influencing factors分类
建筑与水利引用本文复制引用
刘晨,李海明,刘佳嘉,白泽贤,仇亚琴,郝春沣,杜军凯,李雪..抚仙湖水位持续下降成因及2023年多因子贡献定量评估[J].水利水电技术（中英文）,2026,57(7):148-161,14.基金项目
云南省重点研发计划项目(202303AC100020) （202303AC100020）
国家重点研发计划课题(2023YFF1304201) （2023YFF1304201）
