水利水电技术（中英文）2026，Vol.57Issue(7)：173-181,9.DOI:10.13928/j.cnki.wrahe.2026.07.013
考虑决策偏好的梯级水库群水量优化调度策略研究
Research on optimal water scheduling strategies for cascade reservoir groups considering decision-making preferences
摘要
Abstract
[Objective]Global climate change,population growth,and intensified social activities have led to variations in the spatiotemporal distribution of water resources,posing challenges to the development and utilization of water resources.Optimizing the water scheduling of cascade reservoir groups is crucial for water resource allocation.However,current research lacks sufficient consideration of decision-makers' preferences for water shortage patterns and time.[Methods]To address the challenges in water resource allocation,an optimal water volume scheduling model for cascade reservoir groups was established with the primary objective of minimizing water supply deficits.Three water shortage pattern strategies—total water supply deficit control,centralized distribution,and wide-shallow distribution—were proposed,along with water shortage time strategies that adjusted weights across different periods.Then,an analysis was conducted using the Toutun River Basin as a case study.[Results]In the case study of water shortage pattern strategies,when the inflow frequency was p=50％,the wide-shallow distribution pattern result ed in the smallest supply deficit(493 700 m3),the centralized distribution pattern result ed in the largest deficit(1 797 400 m3),and the total water supply deficit control pattern fell in between(973 300 m3).When the inflow frequencies were p=95％and p=75％,although the total supply deficits under the three patterns were similar,the water shortage was more evenly distributed under the wide-shallow distribution pattern.In the analysis of the water shortage time strategy,using p=95％as an example,after applying the strategy,the water supply deficits in March to May decreased from 58 400 m3,5 735 800 m3,and 6 246 600 m3 to 49 000 m3,134 000 m3,and 124 600 m3,respectively.However,the deficits in other months increased from 32 496 200 m3 to 44 223 200 m3,and the total water supply deficit remained essentially unchanged.[Conclusion]In summary,the proposed strategies are proven effective.The wide-shallow distribution pattern demonstrates clear advantages in ensuring supply stability.The water shortage time strategy can reduce water supply deficits in specific periods,but it does not reduce the total deficit—it only redistributes the time of the shortage.The findings can serve as a reference for water allocation of cascade reservoir groups.关键词
梯级水库群/水量调度/决策偏好/缺水模式策略/缺水时间策略/影响因素Key words
cascade reservoir group/water volume scheduling/decision-making preferences/water shortage pattern strategy/water shortage time strategy/influencing factors分类
建筑与水利引用本文复制引用
何中政,陈佳伟,罗智婷,李邦浩,黎良辉,路佳豪,郭海盟..考虑决策偏好的梯级水库群水量优化调度策略研究[J].水利水电技术（中英文）,2026,57(7):173-181,9.基金项目
国家自然科学基金项目(52209024,42271044) （52209024,42271044）
江西省自然科学基金项目(20243BCE51170) （20243BCE51170）
