气象2026，Vol.52Issue(8)：942-958,17.DOI:10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2026.012301
浙江复杂地形下CMA区域集合暖季预报技巧对比与分析
Comparative Analysis of Forecast Skills of CMA Regional Ensemble Prediction Systems in Warm Season for the Complex Terrain Areas of Zhejiang Province
摘要
Abstract
In this study,we conduct a statistical verification and analysis on the performance of near-surface temperature,wind speed and precipitation forecasts during the warm season in Zhejiang Province using CMA regional ensemble prediction systems at 3 km and 10 km horizontal resolutions(hereinafter referred to as CMA-REPS 3 km and CMA-REPS 10 km).The results show that both CMA-REPS 3 km and CMA-REPS 10 km can effectively capture the diurnal variations of near-surface meteorological elements,but their forecasts exhibit a negative bias in temperature,a general overestimation of wind speed,and a general overestimation of precipitation from afternoon to early morning.Compared to CMA-REPS 10 km,CMA-REPS 3 km can effectively reduce forecast errors of temperature and wind speed,with a maximum decrease of 23.1％in continuous ranked probability score and an improvement in the area of relative operation char-acteristic of precipitation forecast by up to 19％.Meanwhile,CMA-REPS 3 km demonstrates more superi-or fraction skill score for heavy precipitation neighborhood space and provides more accurate forecasts in diurnal variations of near-surface elements.However,the early ensemble spread is smaller in the forecast.In complex terrains,CMA-REPS 3 km shows significant improvements in the probability forecast errors of temperature and wind speed and also in the spread-skill relationships for wind speed in hilly and mountain-ous and for temperature in plain and basin areas.Not only that,CMA-REPS 3 km has better capability for the ensemble spread of heavy precipitation and the development of rain bands in steep terrain areas.As such,CMA-REPS 3 km has superior forecasting capability for the near-surface elements in complex ter-rains,particularly for 2 m temperature,10 m wind speed and precipitation.These findings could serve as a scientific basis for objectively evaluating the two CMA regional ensemble prediction systems under differ-ent topographic conditions and their subsequent improvements in ensemble forecasting methods.关键词
复杂地形/区域集合预报/检验评估/暖季预报Key words
complex terrain/regional ensemble prediction system/verification and evaluation/warm-season forecast分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
姚梦颖,陈锋,刘雪晴,李红祺,王婧卓,王秋萍..浙江复杂地形下CMA区域集合暖季预报技巧对比与分析[J].气象,2026,52(8):942-958,17.基金项目
浙江省自然科学基金项目(LZJMZ25D050004)和国家自然科学基金项目(42475167)共同资助 （LZJMZ25D050004）
