气象2026，Vol.52Issue(8)：1008-1021,14.DOI:10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2025.082001
1991-2024年气候变化背景下全国水稻主要农业气象灾害变化特点
Characteristics of Major Agrometeorological Disasters for Rice Under Climate Change Background in China During 1991-2024
摘要
Abstract
Based on rice phenological stages and meteorological observation data from nationwide single-season rice and double-season rice in major rice production areas in China from 1991 to 2024,combined with major agrometeorological disaster indicators,this paper constructs the disaster intensity and hazard indices and analyzes the changing characteristics of heat stress,cold stress,drought,and compound heat and drought stresses.The results indicate that in the period of 1991-2024,heat stress in single-season rice intensified with the tendency of 0.65 increment per 10 years,and the significant increment was observed after 2010 with the highest intensity seen in 2022.For early rice,heat stress has been gradually increasing since 2017.Obstruction-type chilling injury to rice in Northeast China exhibited a weakening trend,seldom oc-curring during 2023-2024.The intensity of cold dew wind for late rice was higher during 2017-2022,but has become weakening during 2023-2024.Drought intensity has fluctuated interannually,with the highest intensity for single-season rice and late rice occurring in 2022,and the affected stations of the two account for higher proportions than that for early rice.The compound heat and drought stresses on single-season rice are more severe than on early rice.Regarding the spatial distribution of high disaster risks,heat stresses on single-season rice are concentrated in northeastern Sichuan,central Chongqing,eastern Hubei and western Hunan,while heat stresses on early rice are located in central Zhejiang,central Jiangxi,eastern Hunan and central Fujian.The high risks of obstruction-type chilling injury to single-season rice have been identified in northeastern Heilongjiang and eastern Jilin,and the cold dew wind risk to late rice is demonstrated in south Anhui,south Jiangsu and Zhejiang.The high risks of drought are highlighted in western part of Northeast China and northern part of low reaches of the Yangtze River Basin for single-season rice,southern Guangdong and Hainan for early rice,and eastern Hubei,north-central Jiangxi and east-central Hunan for late rice.High risks of compound heat and drought stresses on single-season rice are concentrated in northeastern Sichuan,north-central Chongqing,northeastern Hubei and western Hunan,while for early rice,the stress is located in northern Zhejiang and southeastern Hunan.In these rice production areas exposed to high disaster risks,above findings can help guide prevention and reduction of specific disasters.关键词
水稻/高温热害/低温冷害/干旱/复合灾害/强度指数Key words
rice/heat stress/cold stress/drought/compound disaster/intensity index分类
农业科技引用本文复制引用
张蕾,郭安红,赵运成,赵晓凤..1991-2024年气候变化背景下全国水稻主要农业气象灾害变化特点[J].气象,2026,52(8):1008-1021,14.基金项目
中国气象局创新发展专项(CXFZ2024J051、CXFZ2026J059、CXFZ2026J057)共同资助 （CXFZ2024J051、CXFZ2026J059、CXFZ2026J057）
