气象科学2026，Vol.46Issue(4)：366-375,10.DOI:10.12306/2026jms.0002
1980-2022年全球陆地高温干旱时空特征变化分析
Analysis of spatiotemporal characteristics and changes in global land high temperature and drought events from 1980 to 2022
摘要
Abstract
Compound high-temperature and drought events intensify water scarcity,threaten global food security,disrupt ecological stability,and markedly elevate wildfire risks.This study leverages global temperature and precipitation data from 1980 to 2022,employing advanced statistical methods and a Copula model to systematically evaluate the spatiotemporal dynamics of compound high-temperature and drought events across terrestrial regions,defined through a concurrent framework using the Standardized Temperature Index(STI)and Standardized Precipitation Index(SPI).Results show that:(1)western South America experiences prolonged compound events,averaging approximately three months,with severity patterns closely aligned with duration distributions.High-temperature intensity ranges from 1.2 to 1.5,predominantly in Asia,Europe,southern South America,North America,northern Africa,and Australia,while drought intensity peaks in Greenland and central Brazil.(2)STI and SPI exhibit a robust positive correlation year-round.In Asia,compound events concentrate in the southwest from January to May,extend westward in June,migrate eastward in August-September,and diminish from October to December.(3)The frequency of compound events shows a significant upward trend,with high-threshold events increasing markedly after 2000.From 2000 to 2022,relative to 1980-1999,the Event Change Proportion(Eprop)increased,with high-temperatureas the primary driver.(4)Under mild and moderate heat conditions,the probability of compound high-temperature and drought events increases with a higher drought threshold;however,under severe heat conditions,the probability decreases with a higher drought threshold.High-probability regions are concentrated in northern Eurasia,Africa,northern North America,and western South America.关键词
高温干旱/标准化指数/时空趋势/复合效应Key words
high temperature and drought/standardized index/spatiotemporal trends/compound effects分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
马湘翔,毛克彪,袁紫晋,郭中华..1980-2022年全球陆地高温干旱时空特征变化分析[J].气象科学,2026,46(4):366-375,10.基金项目
中央级公益性科研院所基本科研业务费专项(Y2025YC86) （Y2025YC86）
宁夏科技厅自然科学基金重点项目(2024AC02032) （2024AC02032）
