气象科学2026，Vol.46Issue(4)：394-402,9.DOI:10.12306/2025jms.0039
气象灾害预警信息发布与传播途径效能评估——以南京为例
Effectiveness of the release and dissemination channels of meteorological disaster warning information:a case study of Nanjing
摘要
Abstract
This study took Nanjing,Jiangsu Province as an example and analyzed the characteristics of meteorological disaster warning information release in recent years based on the data from 2021 to 2024.Furthermore,by using grey relational analysis,this paper quantitatively evaluated the effectiveness of warning information release and dissemination through different channels.Results show that the main types of meteorological disaster warnings in Nanjing are high temperatures,heavy rain,fog,and thunderstorms with strong winds,accounting for 69.4%of the total warnings.The peak period for warning release occurs from June to August,accounting for 53.5%.The grey relational analysis reveals that the most effective dissemination channels are warning messages(0.746),mobile apps/websites(0.710),and weibo(0.706),all of which are characterized by wide coverage and fast response.Email(0.697)and fax(0.626)have moderate effectiveness and are suitable for specific groups,while WeChat(0.591)has lower effectiveness due to limitations in follower numbers,non-subscriber users being unreachable,and potential folding of push notifications.Therefore,it is recommended to prioritize high-efficiency channels and,in combination with moderately effective ones,build a multi-layered warning release system while also paying attention to the application potential of emerging media technologies.The findings of this study can provide scientific basis for optimizing meteorological disaster warning information release strategies and have important practical significance for improving urban disaster prevention and mitigation capabilities.关键词
气象灾害/预警信息/传播效能/灰色关联分析/南京市Key words
meteorological disasters/warning information/effectiveness of dissemination/grey relational analysis/Nanjing分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
夏敏洁,刘佼,王勇,许澍轩..气象灾害预警信息发布与传播途径效能评估——以南京为例[J].气象科学,2026,46(4):394-402,9.基金项目
江苏省气象局面上基金资助项目(KM202417) （KM202417）
江苏省气象局面上基金项目(KM202409) （KM202409）
