太阳能Issue(8)：61-68,8.DOI:10.19911/j.1003-0417.tyn20250514.03
基于元数据模型的双面光伏发电系统发电量预测方法研究
RESEARCH ON PREDICTION METHOD OF POWER GENERATION CAPACITY OF BIFACIAL PV POWER GENERATION SYSTEM BASED ON METADATA MODEL
摘要
Abstract
This paper proposes a prediction method of power generation capacity of bifacial PV power generation system based on metadata model,which addresses core issues such as insufficient modeling of bifacial gain effects,lack of quantification of temperature nonlinear effects,and obstacles to the integration of multi-source heterogeneous data.The method achieves compatibility and adaptation between single-sided and bifacial PV power generation systems through the configuration of PV module types.Firstly,a metadata model is constructed based on the rule of"PV module type-bifacial coefficient-total solar irradiance",which can support dynamic calculation and multi-source heterogeneous data access of bifacial PV modules.Then,a hybrid regression power generation capacity prediction model based on solar irradiance zoning is constructed,consisting of two parts:quadratic polynomial regression and logarithmic regression,to quantify the nonlinear effects of temperature.Real time parameter optimization is achieved through SQL triggers.Finally,the proposed power generation capacity prediction method is validated using a bifacial PV power station as an engineering scenario,and the prediction accuracy of the hybrid regression power generation capacity prediction model is analyzed.The research results show that the hybrid regression power generation capacity prediction model based on solar irradiance zoning solves the static modeling defects of the bifacial gain effect in traditional power generation capacity prediction model and the modeling difficulties of the steep drop of power generation efficiency of PV power stations in high-temperature scenarios.It can support ISO 8601 timestamp alignment for meteorological stations,PVsyst software,and SCADA system data,achieving multi-source heterogeneous data fusion preprocessing.It can achieve rapid prediction of the power generation capacity of PV power generation systems,and the model accuracy has reached the level of engineering application accuracy.The research results provide a power generation capacity forecasting solution that combines theoretical innovation and engineering practicality for the design of PV power stations.关键词
光伏电站/光伏发电系统/发电量预测/元数据模型/双面光伏组件/非线性回归/数据融合Key words
PV power station/PV power generation system/prediction of power generation capacity/metadata model/bifacial PV modules/nonlinear regression/data fusion分类
信息技术与安全科学引用本文复制引用
何志锋,吴煜晖,邹海青..基于元数据模型的双面光伏发电系统发电量预测方法研究[J].太阳能,2026,(8):61-68,8.基金项目
长江设计集团自主创新项目(CX2024Z14-5) （CX2024Z14-5）
