中国地质灾害与防治学报2026，Vol.37Issue(4)：185-198,14.DOI:10.16031/j.cghc.202509010
贵州省地质灾害气象风险预警模型研究
Research on the geo-hazard meteorological risk early warning model in Guizhou Province
刘黔云 1张楠 1张炎 2艾欣 2林紫怡 2汪晨煜2
作者信息
- 1. 贵州省地质环境监测院,贵州 贵阳 550004
- 2. 中国地质大学(武汉)地理与信息工程学院,湖北 武汉 430078
- 折叠
摘要
Abstract
Rainfall is the primary triggering factor for most geological disasters in Guizhou Province.To address the limitations of conventional early warning approaches based on single critical rainfall thresholds,this study is grounded in the fundamental theory and methodology of explicit statistical models for geological hazards.The coupling effects of geological environmental conditions and rainfall parameters are systematically analyzed to establish a comprehensive early warning indicator system.Specifically,the certainty factor(CF)method combined with a multi-factor weighted overlay approach is employed to quantify and weight selected geological environmental factors.The"susceptibility index"of geological disasters is used as an indicator to characterize the hazard level of the study area.The three-day antecedent effective rainfall and the daily rainfall are adopted as indicators of rainfall-triggering factors.By analyzing the coupling relationships among geological environmental factors,rainfall-triggering factors,and geological hazard occurrence,a regional conventional meteorological early warning model for geological hazards over the next 24 hours is developed based on hazard levels.Early warning simulations for three representative periods during 2023-2024 in Guizhou Province indicate that more than 80%of geological hazard events fall within the predicted warning zones.The hit rate exceeds 86%,while the miss rate remains below 15%.The results demonstrate that the proposed meteorological risk early warning model based on geological hazard potential exhibits good feasibility and practical applicability in Guizhou Province.关键词
地质灾害/危险性评价/显式统计/确定性系数/降雨指数/预警模型Key words
geological hazards/risk assessment/explicit statistical model/certainty factor/rainfall index/early warning model分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
刘黔云,张楠,张炎,艾欣,林紫怡,汪晨煜..贵州省地质灾害气象风险预警模型研究[J].中国地质灾害与防治学报,2026,37(4):185-198,14.
